BYU and ECU face off in Greenville, North Carolina, this weekend in a matchup of two confident teams.
The Cougars are 2-0 with convincing wins over Portland State and Stanford. ECU is 2-1 with a close loss at North Carolina State and two blowout wins over Campbell and Coastal Carolina.
While the Cougars are favored to win this matchup by just about every ratings service and oddsmakers, it's projected to be a relatively close game. The final score as I see it will be determined by two main factors: Quarterback play and the Appalachian Curse.
Quarterback play
BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has played very well in his first two college starts. He played only the first half of the blowout against Portland State, so in six quarters, he has thrown for 272 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also rushed for 39 yards and three more scores.
But this will be his first road test, and ECU fans will be rocking. Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium holds 50,000 fans and most of them want nothing more than a signature win over a Power Four opponent.
That's a tough environment for a freshman quarterback to make his road debut, especially since offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick has kept the game plan very simple and basic up to this point. In Roderick's defense, he hasn't had to open up the playbook yet because the Cougars haven't been tested, but that also means we don't know how well Bachmeier will handle deep passing routes on 3rd-and-9 late in the game.
Meanwhile, ECU's quarterback, Katin Houser, has thrown for 4,111 career yards and 29 touchdowns, including passing for over 1,100 yards at Michigan State in the Big Ten back in 2023. He's averaging 324.3 yards per game on the season and will have the advantage of playing at home.
Advantage, Pirates.
The Appalachian Curse
Though I was born and raised in Utah and graduated from BYU, I have lived in North Carolina for over 20 years now.
When it comes to BYU football, what I call the "Appalachian Curse" is a real thing.
I have either attended or watch too many games with BYU traveling to the Southeast only to play like a completely different team than we see in Provo. I don't know if it's the humidity, the Lexington-style barbeque, or the claustrophobia that occurs by being constantly enveloped by a dense canopy of trees, but BYU just isn't themselves when playing on this side of the country.
Here are the last six games BYU has played in the Appalachian region, and the results are pretty ugly on the whole:
2023 at West Virginia - BYU loses 37-7
2022 at Liberty (Virginia) - BYU loses 41-14
2021 at Georgia Southern - No. 14 BYU wins a sloppy, unimpressive game 34-17 against a far inferior opponent after leading just 20-17 at the half.
2020 at Coastal Carolina - No. 13 BYU loses to No. 18 Coastal Carolina in the only blemish on the Cougars 11-1 season.
2019 at Tennessee - BYU wins a thrilling 29-26 double overtime contest on the road at Neyland Stadium. This is the only recent counterpoint to the Appalachian Curse.
2017 at ECU - BYU loses 33-17, putting the program at its lowest point in decades.
In the end, there are too many advantages leaning the Pirates way. ECU's homefield advantage and experienced quarterback play -- plus the Appalachian Curse -- will be too much for the Cougars to overcome. As much as I hate to do it, I'm picking the Pirates in this one.
Final score: ECU 17, BYU 16