BYU basketball's Kevin Young can't do it without the 3-point line

BYU basketball fell on the road against Texas Tech on Saturday. Just their second loss of the year, the trio of Dybantsa, Wright, and Saunders wasn't enough to push Kevin Young's roster over the finish line. In a game that saw the Cougars leading by as many as nine points in the final nine minutes of play, the 11th-ranked visitors imploded like a dying star, only instead of flaring out in a beautiful supernova, they became an offensive black hole.

Closing a battle like this on a 32-10 run stings, and it keeps BYU's tally of wins against Tech as a member of the Big 12 to zero. This isn't the first time BYU fumbled a major advantage in the United Supermarkets Arena; Mark Pope's team led by 16 at half in 2024 before stumbling in the final frame.

Both in 2024 and 2026 -- BYU's only trips to Lubbock since joining the Big 12 -- ESPN gave the visiting Cougars a 90%+ chance of leaving with a victory. And in both games, the Cougars withered under the pressure of their own advantage.

Frustrated, baffled, BYU hoops returned to Provo completely baffled at how they fell so far so fast.

Tech guard Pop Isaacs was largely to blame for the loss in '24, but in the present day, the biggest factors that kept the Cougars from their W have plagued them in the recent stretch of their Big 12 schedule: production outside of the Big 3 was non-existent, and the three-ball simply wouldn't fall.

BYU shot 5-for-22 (23%) from distance on Saturday compared to Tech's 11-for-29 (38%).

BYU shot 21% from three against TCU in a game that the Cougars nearly fell. They hit just 23% in the Huntsman Center against Utah.

Against apparently lesser squads, the three-pointer became the equalizer for the foe, and it's setting off alarm bells for the Cougars' hopes of making a deep tournament run in March. Last season's team didn't fully bloom until Spring, and this year's edition may share a similar destiny if their early struggles are as parallel to 2025 as they appear.

The finger of blame has to start at the top. This team gets plenty of open looks, and heaven knows they had plenty of airspace in Lubbock over the weekend, so Coach Young gets a (hesitant) pass for now. Dybantsa's three-point numbers have been very concerning, however. As the star of the team, touted for his impenetrable offensive tool kit, he's been a nightmare from distance in recent games.

Shooting 30.2% from beyond the arc, and just 2-of-13 (15.4%) in his last three games, Dybantsa's flat-line jumper rattles out reliably, allowing defenders to collapse and double with ease whenever AJ gets a taste for points.

Typically, this hasn't been a damning weakness of Dybantsa's game, due to his unselfishness with the basketball, and an eye constantly scanning for an open man. But if his teammates are likewise no threat from distance, the defense can clog the lane, swipe at his dribble, and carry no fear that the others will make them pay for their hubris.

Kennard Davis has been the worst of BYU's leading contributors when it comes to shooting the ball. Ice cold doesn't even begin to describe his recent output. He's been 4-of-26 (15.4%) since the beginning of Big 12 play, and 2-of-17 (11.8%) in the three recent head-scratchers against Utah, TCU, and Tech, hitting none of his attempts against TCU and Texas Tech.

He's clearly lost all confidence in his jumper, and his ineffectiveness with the ball in his hands has led to offensive stagnance in recent games. Other teams are recognizing this, and making the Cougars pay for their weakness.

BYU's potential as a basketball team relies on the effectiveness of their three-point attack. Though Dybantsa and Saunders are challenging to slow down near the basket, teams have no fear in collapsing the paint and forcing Young's stars to finish over two, three, and even four defenders.

Though Wright has been effective from distance, one man alone won't win games against the toughest squads in the Big 12.

BYU basketball has a major problem. If the three-ball won't connect, they'll be sunk earlier than expected.