BYU basketball's freshman guard, Egor Demin, came to BYU fully intentioned on shaping his game for the highest level of hoops: the NBA. Awkwardly, his early returns haven't been entirely awe-inspiring to this point.
A quick glance at his stat line may dispell some initial concern, as the Moscow native has averaged 12.2 points, 5.9 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per night in his 9 appearances. His percentages, while far from revolutionary, are perfectly acceptable--hitting 47% of his field goals and 34% from beyond the arc.
So, what's the problem?
The problem arises when the competition heats up, specifically when the Cougars clash with "power conference" opponents like members of the Big East, ACC, SEC, etc. Directly contrasting Egor's output against weaker matchups, Egor's stats take a harsh drop-off.
Most notably, his shooting numbers are abysmal in his past four games, shooting 2-for-21 from long range. That number becomes even more shocking when you realize Demin hasn't hit a 3-ball in his past four appearances, and not for lack of attempts.
Egor Demin is struggling against tougher competition. Can he figure it out, or is the 6'9" guard in trouble?
— Calvin Barrett (@SharkWaffles_) January 3, 2025
Stat differences: Power opponents - Non:
FG%: -39.54%
3pt%: -52.21
Reb: +1.25
Ast: -2.95
Stl: -1.65
TO: +1.05
Pts: -6.7#BYU @BYUMBB pic.twitter.com/G6tDmIHct9
He's shooting 26.6% from the field against power opponents, a cliff of nearly 40% compared to non-power competition. Ouch.
Positively, his shooting mechanics are much improved from his days with Real Madrid, where he wasn't known to shoot his competition out of the gym. Development isn't linear, and his NBA skill has always been his playmaking ability, where he's excelled this season, ranking in the top 30 of the NCAA in assists per game.
But the assist-to-turnover ratio is uncomfortably drawing closer to the dreaded 1:1. His 3.27 assist-to-turnover ratio before entering the power gauntlet was fantastic, and his 7 dimes against ASU indicate that he's more than capable of dishing them out. We can't ignore his glaring turnover problem, however, coughing up 10 between ASU and Providence alone.
With Egor Demin, his draft position will surely be determined by the role that he’ll be able to project himself onto at the next level. If he’s a 6’8 lead guard, Demin is a player worthy of a top5 pick. If he’s a connective wing, well, we’re most likely talking about the back end… pic.twitter.com/AAeDTpwsoy
— the center hub (@thecenterhub_bb) December 12, 2024
The goal has been, and still remains, an NBA lottery selection for Demin, and his skill set is undeniable in short doses. Against lesser competition, Egor is a world beater, capable of manipulating and moving the defense like a Pac-Man champion influences the suggestable maze of ghosts.
Egor's vision and playmaking is, at its best, visionary and at its worst, manageably misguided. Finding the balance between an outstanding pass and a reckless giveaway will be key for Egor as he manages being the focus of the defense.
Decision-making will be the difference in his draft stock. Picking good shots and making smart decisions will force the defense to respect his versatility. Hitting open jumpers will lure the defense out, while equitably distributing will draw the defense away from him.
Should we be worried about Egor? Cautious, maybe, but I believe his skill set is well-suited to acclimate to the sped-up game of Big 12 basketball.