It pains me to write this out, but I think BYU basketball suffers its first conference loss this weekend in Lubbock.
But trust me when I say it's not out of pessimism, nor is this article published in the hopes of giving the universe a taste of reverse psychology. I'm reading the tea leaves as I draft this, and it's looking bleak.
The 11th-ranked BYU Cougars (16-1, 4-0 Big 12) go on the road to face the 15th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (13-4, 3-1 Big 12) in the Lubbock-based United Supermarkets Arena, a location where the Red Raiders have yet to lose this season, in a Q1 road test -- a situation that has yet to produce a W for Kevin Young's squad. In fact, unless you count BYU's 2-point loss to UConn in Boston as a road game, this will be the first Q1 road game BYU has faced all season.
Let me tell you, JT Toppin and the rest of Grant McCasland's Tech roster do not back down against anybody. They took Illinois and Houston to the wire, losing both road games by a mere four points. They toppled Cameron Boozer and the mighty Duke Blue Devils in Madison Square Garden with a furious second-half comeback (sound familiar?). Their only truly bad result all season? A 30-point loss against the then top-ranked Purdue.
Here's the deal: BYU basketball boasts the top-end talent equal to any team Tech has faced or will face all year, yes, but circumstances are everything in college basketball.
The Cougars are fresh off two exhausting slugfests with rival Utah and former Mountain West mate TCU in their last two contests. While winning in the Big 12 Conference is never a guarantee (just look at Iowa State's 20-point loss in Allen Fieldhouse this week), recent production from the Cougars hasn't exactly inspired confidence that they can challenge one of the league's giants and come home unscathed.
Tech can hang with anybody (except Purdue, I guess), and BYU basketball is trending towards a wake-up call.
On that same line, however, I can't avoid mentioning that Texas Tech hasn't been without their own head-scratching results. Last week, Tech escaped Boulder with a two-point victory over the Buffs. During the non-conference stretch, the Red Raiders nearly lost home court to the Wyoming Cowboys (a group that can't stop tormenting Tech whether on the gridiron or floorboards) in a 76-72 final.
Despite the return of JT Toppin, the reigning Big 12 Conference Player of the Year, Texas Tech is not untouchable. But I expect some of the Cougars unfavorable tendencies to be their downfall in Lubbock.
Expect a slow start from BYU, a team that can't seem to create separation in the first half of any competitive contest. Poor offensive flow, ice-cold shooting, and an out-of-rhythm cadence will likely personify the Cougars in the opening 20. Especially if the sold-out Tech crowd gets excited early, BYU basketball could struggle to find the mute button.
Dybantsa will get his 20 points, as he always finds a way to do, but if the Cougars struggle connecting from range, desperation foul-baiting could personify a frustrated attack from BYU.
Texas Tech outguns the Cougars this weekend, despite a late BYU comeback effort. This game will serve as a reality check in the first true taste of Big 12 talent, and a chaotic environment screeching for AJ's downfall.
BYU has never beaten Texas Tech as a member of the Big 12 Conference, and the way I see it, they don't change that fact this weekend.