Cougars have their sights set on one of their toughest challenges in program history, the Fighting Irish

One of the most highly anticipated games in college football is close upon us. By far, it will be the most important game of the season that will determine both No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 8 BYU football’s true colors.  

The destiny of the Cougars’ CFP aspirations hangs in the balance on Saturday, October 17. Even though BYU will get Utah next month, the showdown between the Catholics and Mormons should get significantly more attention than the Holy War. It helps that ESPN College GameDay is coming to Provo – the first time since the 2009 debacle against TCU – to help garner that attention. 

This matchup brings heavy statistical milestones to the table, which enriches the preview tremendously. It will be the first time ever that two top-10 teams face off in LaVell Edwards Stadium, dating back to the Cougar Stadium days in 1964. Plus, the Cougars will play against the third-highest-ranked team at home in program history. The two top-ranked teams were the 2004 USC squad led by Heisman winners Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush and the 1990 defending champion Miami Hurricanes. No wonder this is circled on everyone’s schedule this week. Kalani Sitake has not defeated a top-10 team since taking down No. 9 Baylor in 2022. The one catch is the Bears finished 6-7… sheesh. This would make it the greatest win in the Sitake era if the Cougars pull it off.

We have all heard that any team can beat any team on any given Saturday. The oddsmakers have a hard time believing that considering the Fighting Irish are favorites by 10.5 points on the road. That is a very rare occurrence for BYU to be that big of an underdog spread at home for a night game. The homer in me feels like that is disrespectful even though I love when the Cougars play with a chip on their shoulder in proving the doubters wrong. 

There are two strong cases on each side of the coin when it comes to BYU’s chances of pulling off the home upset. Here are those breakdowns:

Why the Cougars' chances are better than we think

It is an evening home game, they have a stalwart defense, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier is trending upward in Heisman conversations. This recipe is the key to having a chance against any of the top teams in the nation. 

The defense has what it takes to slow down a lethal Irish offense, who have won by an average margin of 33 points in their undefeated campaign. The numbers prove it can at the very least contain Notre Dame’s attack to an extent as they are ninth in points per game (13.4) and eighth yards per game (254.4) against opponents. BYU has had elite success in defending both the rush and the pass as it ranks 10th in rush yards per game (80.4), ninth in rushing touchdowns (three), fourth in yards per pass attempt (5.5) and fifth in yards per completion (9.0). On a consistent basis, this team knows how to prevent big plays, which is a realistic scenario that can help the Cougars triumph in this top-10 matchup. 

Let’s not forget this is easily Notre Dame’s toughest test yet just as much as it is for BYU. Its massive wins have come against not providing much of a challenge outside of Michigan State. They are coming into a rowdy environment in a highly elevated place where many teams are susceptible to not being conditioned to. The Irish will be as ready as they can for it, but they will feel it no matter how much preparation they did. 

Bachmeier is levels above and unlike any of the quarterbacks Notre Dame has defended against this year. As we know very well, he can get loose on any given play on top of his pinpoint accuracy throwing the rock, a 66% completion rate to be exact. He has been the creator of explosive plays as the offense as a whole has put up 7.1 yards per play, 10th in the FBS. The rainy TCU game sort of tainted the counting numbers and other metrics, but the rest of the contests have been more than enough evidence to show how explosive the offense can get, and it will not be shy taking shots downfield to open up big running lanes. 

Why the Cougars' chances feel extremely slim

The talent disparity is in favor of Notre Dame on both sides of the ball, and BYU will be missing very key players. The Irish have been taking care of business in a big way offensively and defensively. 

To counter BYU’s offensive attack, the Irish do an exceptional job at preventing big plays. They lead the FBS in yards per play allowed at 4.08 and yards per game at 214. In addition, they find themselves No. 4 in scoring defense (11 points per game) and No. 3 in turnover margin (+2.17). Standout All-American cornerback Leonard Moore is someone to stay away from on the outside, and the rest of Notre Dame’s defense is filled with playmakers. Points for each team will be slim pickings it seems. 

Many instances of the Irish scoring have been because the defense gave them short fields to work with. However, they have still produced at will by scoring 44 points per game, good enough for fourth in the nation. Junior quarterback CJ Carr is a huge reason for that as he sits a consensus top-three in the Heisman winner odds. 

On the bright side of injury news, Sione Moa was medically cleared to play against Notre Dame on Tuesday, which is a huge potential boost to a backfield missing LJ Martin. Linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Siale Esera are also likely to play, along with defensive backs Raider Damuni and Cannon DeVries. It is hard to envision all of them being one hundred percent, but their presence helps. Being without tackle Andrew Gentry for perhaps the whole season certainly hurts, and could open a hole in the line the Irish will try to expose. Alas, it is next-man-up mentality.

In summary, both perspectives are certainly correct in their own ways. It is up to you how good the chances are for the Cougars, but I choose to believe a doubted BYU team is a force to be reckoned with.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow