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BYU's dominance in 2025 proves high school "star ratings" can be almost worthless in predicting team success

Kalani Sitake's program has gone 23-4 over the last two seasons while knocking on the door of the College Football Playoffs. They have managed this success despite a roster full of players with less-than-stellar "star rating" from 247 Sports.
Dec 27, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake celebrates after beating Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Dec 27, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake celebrates after beating Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BYU football's class of 2027 is giving some Cougar fans a bit of angst. Many of us were compulsively refreshing our browsers for the better part of the last six weeks, hoping to see announcements from top prospects pledging their allegiance to Kalani Sitake's program. But instead of a tidal wave like last year, this recruiting cycle has been flowing in at a lower volume.

That said, Cougar fans rejoiced when Uhila Wolfgramm, a 4-star defensive tackle with a 93 rating from 247 Sports, committed to the Cougars. Same goes for 4-star wide receiver Blake Wong and his 90 rating.

Team and individual 247 Sports ratings

For most Cougar fans, when BYU offers a player or the program gets a commitment we tend to pull up 247 Sports to see how many stars they have and what their rating is. And, to 247 Sports' credit, they do a pretty good job rating talent in the vast, unpredictable universe that is high school sports. On the whole, there is probably a pretty strong correlation between 247 Sports player ratings and their eventual success at the next level.

But individually, things get wonky.

Take, for instance, last year's BYU Cougars. Kalani Sitake led his team to a 12-2 record with their only two losses coming to Big 12 champion Texas Tech. Despite the success, BYU's team talent composite at 247 Sports was No. 70 in the country, just behind Tulane and Boston College.

And when we break things down from the team level to the individual player level, it becomes readily apparent just how good BYU is in developing talent. Here are the 247 Sports stars and ratings of each of the Cougars primary starters last year:

2025 Offense

QB - Bear Bachmeier (3-star, 88)

HB - LJ Martin (3-star, 88), Sione Moa (not rated)

WR - Chase Roberts (3-star, 88), Parker Kingston (3-star, 81), Jojo Phillips (3-star, 87)

TE - Carsen Ryan (3-star, 89)

OT - Isaiah Jatta (unrated pre-JUCO rating), Weylin Lapuaho (3-star, 85), Bruce Mitchell (2-star, 79), Kyle Sfarcioc (2-star, 79), Andrew Gentry (4-star, 94)

Average offense rating: 85.8

Unrated players: 2 (Moa, Jatta)

Bear Bachmeie
Nov 22, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

2025 Defense

DT - Keanu Tanuvasa (3-star, 87), Justin Kirkland (not rated)

DE - Bode Schoonover (3-star, 88), Logan Lutui (not rated)

LB - Isaiah Glasker (3-star, 82), Jack Kelly (3-star, 82), Siale Esera (3-star, 87)

CB - Evan Johnson (3-star, 81), Mory Bamba (not rated), Therrian Alexander (3-star, 87)

S - Faletau Satuala (4-star, 94), Tanner Wall (not rated)

Average defense rating: 86.0

Unrated players: 4 (Kirkland, Lutui, Bamba, Wall)

Glaske
Sep 6, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars linebacker Jack Kelly (17) and linebacker Isaiah Glasker (16) in action during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Brigham Young Cougars at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

BYU is elite at developing talent

There are a couple of powerful takeaways from this data.

First, six of last year's 24 primary starters weren't rated by 247 Sports coming out of high school. That's a full 25 percent of a roster that went 12-2 being zero-star recruits. Among those zero-stars, Isaiah Jatta and Tanner Wall are currently with the Las Vegas Raiders and Mory Bamba is a New York Jet.

Zero-stars Sione Moa and Justin Kirkland are going to play massive roles this year, provided they're fully healthy.

Second, beyond developing "zero-stars" into impact players, BYU does the same with two-star and low-three star prospects.

Bruce Mitchell went from 2-star defensive tackle to preseason All-American center this year. Guard Kyle Sfarcioc was also a 2-star prospect who goes into this season as a member of Phil Steele's Preseason All-Big 12 team.

Wide receiver Parker Kingston far exceeded his 81 rating before his off-field issues derailed his promising career. Linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly sported 82 ratings coming out of high school. Kelly was just selected in the NFL Draft and Glasker will likely follow that same path next year. Cornerback Evan Johnson is another 82 rating who goes into 2026 on the Phil Steele Preseason All-Big 12 team.

The third takeaway is among the 18 primary starters that had a 247 Sports rating, the average individual player rating comes out to "just" 85.9. With the momentum BYU has on the recruiting trail right now, few BYU fans get overly excited when the Cougs sign a player with an 86 rating. Let's just trust BYU's staff in how they evaluate talent, stars be darned.

Kalan
Dec 6, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake looks on during the game between the Red Raiders and the Cougars at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The future is bright in Provo

Kalani Sitake and his staff are masters of player development. They get four-star production from players rated far below that threshold coming out of high school.

Imagine what they can do with even more high-level talent.

They are currently getting the most out of highly-rated players like Bachmeier, Martin, Gentry, and Satuala. And the Cougars are landing more and more players of that caliber.

Looking at BYU's 2027 class, while they currently only have 12 commits, their average 247 sports rating of 87.55 ranks second in the Big 12 behind only Texas Tech's eye-popping 89.79.

While 247 Sports ratings are helpful, especially at the aggregate, there is something special BYU is able to do when developing talent. Perhaps no team in the country consistently outperforms their perceived "lack of talent" like Kalani Sitake's program. The Cougars have been rolling over the last two years with good-but-not-great high school talents. Look for BYU to continue to improve from here as the talent threshold increases, and the outstanding player development continues.

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