Kevin Young coached his first season in Provo last year and one thing became abundantly clear about the 2024-25 squad he piloted to the Sweet 16: The Cougars could knock down 3s.
Last year, BYU shot 36.8% from deep, good enough for 41st nationally and second in the Big 12, trailing only Houston's blistering 39.4%. The Cougs made an average 10.5 of 28.6 3-point attempts per game, scoring nearly 32 points per game from beyond the arc.
BYU's democratic offense from a season ago produced some incredible individual shooting results from the 3-point line including Richie Saunders (43.2% on 5.2 3-point attempts per game), Trevin Knell (42.9% on 4.9 attempts), Mawot Mag (39.7% on 2.1 attempts), and Dawson Baker 38.0% on 3.0 attempts).
Egor Demin and Dallin Hall were pass-first point guards on last year's squad and it felt like the Cougs could generate good looks from deep whenever they wanted -- or needed -- them.
That excellent shooting from downtown helped propel the Cougars into a Big 12 contender and a Sweet 16 finisher last season. Fast forward one year, and while Saunders and Baker have returned for the Cougs, the team's 3-point shooting did not.
Through four games this year BYU is shooting just 32.0% from the 3-point line, connecting on just 8.0 of 25.0 attempts per game. And this lack of consistent, effective shooting from downtown could play a key factor in preventing the Cougars from fulfilling their dream (and that of their loyal fans) of a Final Four run this year.
Why BYU's shaky 3-point shooting matters
The first reason why BYU's rough start to the season from the 3-point line matters is that they are averaging only eight points per game from downtown. Those points matter when fending off a second-half charge from Villanova or dropping a game by two points to UConn.
Beyond the simple math, BYU's inconsistent 3-point shooting has put them in big deficits early, forcing them to play catch-up for extended periods of time. Against Delaware, BYU somehow missed their first 11 3-point attempts and found themselves trailing 17-4 nearly seven minutes into the game before righting the ship in the second half. In the oh-so-close two-point loss to Connecticut, the Cougars missed their first 10 3s and trailed by 15 with just over six minutes left in the first half.
Lastly, BYU's inability to knock down 3s is going to clog up driving lanes for both AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright III. Both of these players are exceptional at getting into the paint, but they need guys around them who can knock down the open perimeter shots they create when driving to the bucket. If Dybantsa and Wright shared the floor with two guys who could hit 40-plus percent from deep (think last year's Richie Saunders and Trevin Knell), opposing defenses would be put in a near no-win situation on almost every possession. If they don't help on Dybantsa and Wright, they are going to parade to the bucket. Drop into coverage on them and BYU's snipers will knock down open 3s.
Now, much of BYU's 3-point shooting this year will rest on Richie Saunders' very capable shoulders. He went from hitting 43.2% of this 3s last season to just 34.6% this year, on what is of course a small sample size. Richie will figure things out and slowly climb the hill back to shooting closer to 40% than what he's currently shooting.
The 3-point shooting from BYU's bench is another matter. The combo of Mihailo Boskovic, Tyler Mrus, Dominique Diamonde, and Aleksej Kostic are shooting a combined 2-of-24 (just 8.3%) from deep, and they are all too good of shooters to not improve as the season goes along.
Last year BYU made the Sweet 16 thanks in large part of ball movement and 3-point snipers standing wide open beyond the arc.
This year BYU has two ball dominant players in Robert Wright III and AJ Dybantsa, and the team is still figuring out how to manufacture open looks from deep. The Cougars are too talented and too well coached to keep struggling so badly from the 3-point line and should improve as the season progresses.
And if they want to make the Final Four for the first time in program history, they're going to need to do just that.