BYU vs Kansas prediction: Retzlaff and the Cougars make another night game statement

Jake Retzlaff and the BYU Cougars are chasing their 10th win of the season in as many games. This has been a dream season for the Cougs, as they've surpassed preseason expectations that projected this team would be battling for their fifth win. On Saturday night, they have a chance to double that number.

But this game means much more than reaching a win total; win tonight, and the Cougars are one game closer to a conference championship appearance, and a potential playoff bid.

But this game against 3-6 Kansas has sparked some concern for experts and fans alike. For many reasons, the Jayhawks are the antithesis of BYU's season, and that has fans worried that fortune may favor the desperate in this matchup.

For every time the Cougars stole a last-minute victory over the season, the Jayhawks have lost a late-game lead, and then some. While the Cougars are undefeated in one-score results, KU is 0-5 when the final score is within striking distance.

It's not hard to imagine a timeline that sees the Jayhawks sitting near the top of the Big 12 while the Cougars are middling in the conference standings. With a highly explosive Jaylon Daniels-led offense leading the charge, the Jayhawks have remained competitive in nearly every contest, and they're heating up at the perfect moment to challenge a top-10 team on the road.

Two decisive wins over Houston and Iowa State should have BYU concerned--not to mention that Rock Chalk nearly stole a rivalry victory over Kansas State between those two results.

Kansas is fighting for a bowl appearance, and every game is their last chance to remain in contention, as they teeter over the cliff of postseason irrelevance. They want this win--they need this win.

But if we're taking note of the context surrounding this collision, we'd be insane to ignore everything surrounding BYU.

Kansas is facing a giant that stands alone atop the Big 12 standings, ranks 6th in the nation according to the College Football Playoff, and owns one of the best home-field advantages in football. A late-night battle with the beset team in the conference should have the Jayhawks' less-than certain about a win in Provo.

The Jayhawks struggle with turnovers, and their tendency to cough up possession has cost them in many tight contests. BYU forces takeaways at an elite rate--especially via interceptions--and will look to create havoc for Jeff Grimes' offense.

I don't expect this one to be a nail-biter at the level of Oklahoma State or Utah, but BYU has proven capable of winning in a variety of ways this year. This "team of destiny" has enjoyed a season comparable to 2022 TCU, the team that took down Michigan in the playoffs, and isn't expecting to lose this one tonight.

I expect BYU to win big tonight. Far from a blowout, but if the defense can neutralize Kansas' offense, I expect Jake Retzlaff, LJ Martin, and the rest of the offense to handle a mediocre KU defense and give themselves room to breathe as long as they can remain disciplined and play their game. We could see a game similar to the Cougars' win over Arizona.

Final Score Prediction: BYU 38, Kansas 23

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