Cougar fans, I get the anxiety about drawing a first-round matchup against VCU, a very good 28-6 conference champion that should have been bracketed much higher than an 11 seed.
I also understand the NCAA Tournament-related PTSD from BYU’s recent first round losses as a six-seed against 11-seeds UCLA (2021) and Duquesne (2024). Those losses still sting our blue-bleeding hearts.
Most sportsbooks have BYU a one-to-two-point favorite against VCU. Many experts view this game as a 50-50 tossup. Given all of this, I understand why some of your certain sphincter muscles might be especially tight when BYU tips off against VCU in Denver.
That said, there are objective reasons to believe that this March Madness experience will be different for the BYU Cougars. Despite a tough draw against a really good VCU team, this year I’m sticking out my neck and publicly predicting a double-digit win for Kevin Young’s squad. Here’s why:
BYU is the more battle-tested team
The BYU Cougars just ran the gauntlet that is the Big 12 and went 14-6 in one of the best conferences in the country. They went 4- 4 against ranked opponents, collecting impressive wins against Iowa State (twice), Arizona (on the road), and a 34-point obliteration of Kansas. BYU went 8-7 in Quad 1 games this year. This team is battle tested.
VCU, on the other hand, had a strength of schedule that ranked No. 111 in the country. The Rams played just three Quad 1 games against Colorado State (win), New Mexico (loss), and Dayton (win). They have not played a ranked team this year. Now, VCU can only play the teams on its schedule and they were often dominant, but they haven't played top-tier teams this year.
BYU will be far and away the best team VCU has faced this season.
The Cougars, on the other hand, have been playing VCU-caliber teams once or twice a week since Big 12 conference play started on New Year’s Eve.
BYU’s 3-point shooting offsets VCU’s interior defense
VCU’s calling card this season has been its dominant defense. The Rams' interior size limits opposing teams to shooting just 43.3% on 2-point shots, an impressive stat that ranks third in the nation. They have also held opposing teams to shoot just 30.4% percent from the 3-point line on 19.1 attempts per game.
Kevin Young’s NBA offense should offset VCU’s defensive prowess, provided the Cougars simply don’t just have a cold shooting game. Most of BYU’s shots coming from inside the 3-point line are either layups or occasional designed sets for Fousseyni Traore, who is a load in the post.
The Cougars averaged 28.8 3-point attempts per game, nearly 10 more per contest than VCU faced on average this year. BYU connected on 37.1% of their 3-point attempts, or nearly seven percentage points higher than VCU’s opponents.
On average, BYU scores 32.1 points per game from the 3-point line. VCU’s opponents have averaged 17.2 points per game from the 3-point line.
If the Cougars make their average number of 3-pointers against VCU, the Rams will have to “make up” nearly 15 additional points their opponents haven’t normally scored against them this year.
“Every game a home game”
BYU got a great draw by playing in Denver which is just a quick flight or a reasonable drive from Provo. Throw in a large population of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints living in the greater Denver area, and there should be a lot of royal blue in the stands and “B-Y-U” chants raining down in big moments.
VCU, on the other hand, will travel over 1,600 miles and cross two time zones to face the Cougars.
BYU has a massive “home court” advantage in this one.
BYU’s dominant depth
Lastly, depth matters in the NCAA Tournament. Guys get into foul trouble. There are bad matchups. Injuries happen. VCU has just five players averaging at least five points per game this year. BYU has nine players averaging at least five points per game this season.
The Rams two leading scores are guards Max Shulga and Joseph Bamisile, both of whom average 15.1 points per game. These two players alone account for nearly 40% of VCU’s offense. BYU head coach Kevin Young will be scheming to limit these two players, and the Rams have few options after them.
BYU, on the other hand, is led by Richie Saunders (16.0 PPG) and Egor Demin (10.3 PPG). Their combined 26.3 points per game accounts for 32% of BYU’s total points. The Cougars have a much, much deeper bench to pick up the offensive slack should in-game adjustments need to be made.
Final score prediction
While VCU is a solid team and could definitely beat BYU, I’m feeling much more confident in this matchup than most other basketball analysts.
The combination of BYU being the more battle-tested team, their 3-point prowess, their proximity to home, and their incredible depth gives them significant advantages in this matchup. While I, like you, still carry the scars of BYU’s recent tournament losses, this time will be different:
Final Score: BYU 74, VCU 64