College football may be the most baffling sport in our modern age. Sure, the rules are both strict and subjective, but that's football as a whole, and I want to talk about college ball. In the NFL, teams are afforded a playoff berth based entirely on merit -- their record is absolute and there has never been a dispute over which teams "deserve" to play for the championship.
But in the college ranks, with over 100 teams and 10 conferences of varying competencies, it's challenging to put a fine point on exactly which teams deserve a seat at the table in the postseason. Thus, the necessity of a playoff was introduced with the intention of taking the most outstanding teams from across the nation and allowing them to prove their worth on the field of play.
Brilliant, right? Well, yes, and no. Take Florida State, for example, when their team ran the table through the ACC and finished with a perfect 13-0 record, but were locked out of the four-team bracket due to an injury to their starting quarterback.
Sure, going undefeated in a power conference is impressive, but the selection committee made an off-the-field judgement call for what they assumed would occur on the field in a hypothetical playoff matchup. Never mind who may be deserving, never mind who has earned what, never mind all of that, because a one-loss Alabama team had earned the faith of the decision-makers and they were allowed to jump the line.
This decision outraged the fans clamoring for the most deserving team to be allowed entry, and the impending 12-team playoff format was necessitated. Now, conference champions from the major leagues and one from a "lesser" league would be allowed automatic entry, with the remaining spots filled in by leftover at-large contenders.
Now that sounds fair. But already two seasons into the 12-team layout, and every decision has been met with nothing but disagreement and outrage from the game's viewers. Last season, a 2-loss SMU team crept into the final field after losing a conference championship game. The 2-loss BYU team that had defeated the Mustangs earlier that season sat more than a few slots outside the bracket.
This year, it seems the automatic qualifiers may stand between deserving teams and their ticket to the tournament, as the ACC and Group of 5 have failed to present competitive teams at the top, with Miami and Georgia Tech remaining outside the top 12, and 2-loss Tulane and James Madison competing for the G5 AQ.
As the format stands now, the top 10 teams are the cutoff for at-large teams, bumping one-loss BYU, and fellow Big 12 darling Utah from the bracket as they hold the 11th and 12th ranks, according to the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Two teams that may be severely disappointed in the final selection show if the top 10 sees no more shakeup for the final two weeks.
If Utah jumps the Cougars due to BYU's loss in the conference championship game, the playoff committee will be going back on the precedent set by SMU last season and TCU in 2022, only twice as bad, as they'd be punishing BYU for both losing to the same team twice in a season and competing in the conference championship game at all -- a risk the Utes would dodge entirely in this scenario.
BYU's resume stands above Oregon, Notre Dame, Alabama
On top of all this, BYU's body of work passes the "blind resume test" with flying colors against the likes of Oregon and Notre Dame, teams currently receiving a boost for success in previous seasons. In other words, they're promoted for brand value rather than the content of their season.
Oregon has 2 wins against opponents currently holding a winning record -- BYU has 5.
Oregon has 0 wins against opponents currently holding 7 wins or more -- BYU has 3.
Oregon has 0 wins against opponents currently ranked -- BYU has 1 (12 Utah).
Both teams have just one loss, so one would expect these teams to be, at the very least, near each other in the standings, correct? One would be wrong, because Oregon is ranked 7th in the latest poll -- 4 spots above a team with a stronger resume.
Even worse, a 2-loss Notre Dame team is being rewarded for the teams they lost to, Texas A&M and Miami, as they are ranked 9th in the latest poll despite having one win comparable to BYU's ranked victory over the Utes -- a win over 15th-ranked USC.
Even Alabama, a team that reached as high as 4th in the rankings, owns the worst loss of any team in the top 15, yet remains above 1-loss BYU, whose only crime was a road defeat against 5th-ranked Texas Tech.
The Big 12 Conference has 5 ranked teams at the moment, yet the league is being handled with kid gloves by the decision-makers at the top. If the Cougars can take down Cincinnati on Saturday, what will be the verdict of the selection committee: BYU won on the road against a tough Cincinnati team in a game with Big 12 championship implications, or will the Bearcats be relegated like TCU last weekend, where a dominant victory was brushed aside as beating up on a lesser team?
Upsets can still happen above the Cougars, of course, but if BYU is forced to approach the bench with an 11-2 record, their chances at being an at-large inclusion suddenly feel minimal. No other team in the nation is being punished for losing to a playoff team like the Cougars appear to be.
Win against Cincinnati, and the true intentions of the selection committee will be on display. If BYU remains outside of the at-large bubble, a conference championship win (likely against Texas Tech) could be the only way through the door.
Thanks to the fairness failsafe of automatic inclusions for the ACC and Group of 5 (possibly Jake Retzlaff and Tulane), teams like BYU and Utah may be excluded. A measure of equity may be the final nail in the coffin, thanks to brand bias and prestige posturing.
I'd love to be wrong about this, but without drastic upsets above, the doors appear to be closed.