SEC commissioner Greg Sankey sent a tremor through the collegiate world when his league reportedly permitted an exit from the NCAA amid a recent College Football Playoff shakeup.
"In an unreported and little-known fact, SEC presidents in March quietly authorized their commissioner, Sankey, to split from the NCAA if he deems that the right move." --Yahoo! Sports
For all the NCAA doomsdayers rushing to the street corners with signs hung over your chests, settle down for a moment. While an SEC-less NCAA would certainly be damaged, the future of collegiate athletics is in no immediate danger, as Sankey would later clarify on an appearance on the Paul Finebaum Show.
"In Monday’s press conference, my observation was in our room, there are those who asked, ‘Does the NCAA still work for us? Why are we still in the NCAA?’ So we talked about a decision-making working group. Chancellor Boyce from Ole Miss and myself are on that. What is our position?
“We felt, and I think we still feel that an autonomy division within the NCAA is the best direction. So that’s a decision we’ve made before. How do we position it as this conversation takes place?"
Whether it was a bullet or a rubber band, this situation feels like a near-miss for the deteriorating status quo of college sports. The SEC, like it or not, is the cornerstone of college football -- and has been for the past few seasons. Taking that chunk out of the pie would leave irreparable damage on the landscape of the NCAA, and with the most bloated league threatening to strike it out on their own, conferences like the Big 12, ACC, and Big 10 (assuming they don't pair up with the SEC in the event of a SEC exit).
...SEC-xit?
The boat is rocking, and for schools like BYU who just found stable ground in a power league (in this case, the Big 12), what would a damaged NCAA mean for the "lesser" conferences that would be left behind?
I think this issue filters into two dominant questions for the Big 12 Conference. One: Can the NCAA survive without one or two of its largest money-makers? Two: Would the Big 12 (ACC, Big 10, etc) thrive at the top of the NCAA totem pole?
Would a Big 12-led NCAA survive?
The landscape of the NCAA is constantly changing, and rumors of conference realignment have damaged the foundational pillars of the organization. The top has grown heavier, as the biggest and strongest are fortifying their barracks with giants the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, etc. while the weaker leagues are forced to repair their broken homes with the next best options.
The SEC and Big 10 are beginning to dominate the narrative of the greater landscape. He who owns the gridiron owns the world, and the SEC and Big 10 have arguably been the gold standard for football superiority over the past few seasons. They've carved up a big enough stick to swing around the negotiating table, to the point where eight auto-bids are picking up momentum.
"Their other issues with this format? Well, it could cause the complete implosion of the CFP as an entity. The Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame, and several Group of Six conferences are strongly fighting against the format — publicly, privately, and politically, too. The battle has turned feisty on the public scene and could result in legal action over a memorandum of understanding signed last year that grants authority over the future format to the Big Ten and SEC.
"Big 12 and ACC officials don’t seem to be backing down. Would the Big Ten and SEC really leave the CFP to start their own playoff with just the two of them?" --Yahoo! Sports
If you ask me, the weight of the Big 12 and ACC may be strong enough -- with the rest of the NCAA behind them -- to dust themselves off and build a stronger NCAA if and when their strong-arming older brothers stop threatening to leave and just leave.
Breaking off and forming a new league could blow up in the defectors' faces. A damaged NCAA could rebuild bigger and better.
Would the Big 12 thrive at the top?
As it stands now, the Big 12 carries the most value of the non-SEC, non-Big 10 leagues, with only the ACC as a serious competitor for the top spot.
In a new NCAA, I would expect even more power from the likes of the American Conference, and the scrapped-together remains of the future Pac-12 (Mountain West Plus) to even the scales of power.
The ACC has the largest individual brands at the moment. Duke and UNC for basketball. Clemson and Florida State for football. While the Big 12 has stronger programs at the moment, would dominance in football and basketball -- the two biggest money makers -- be a guarantee? Will Houston, Arizona, Baylor, BYU, etc continue to rule the hardwood? Can Arizona State, Iowa State, and BYU remain strong on the football field? Can Utah return to their Pac-12 glory?
I think the Big 12 boasts the greatest upside as currently constructed, and the bottom-half of the ACC (the league's primary competition) has proven capable of caving in.
The next era of college sports may look largely unchanged from its greater picture today. But if a drastic change is on the horizon, the reaction of leagues like the Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC may be critical to the survival of the NCAA.