6-seed BYU will face either Texas or North Carolina State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. The Longhorns and Wolfpack square off Tuesday to determine which team will advance as the No. 11 seed.
As we strive to project BYU's chances of winning their first round matchup, regardless of opponent, let's take a look at where Texas and NC State are ranked and how Kevin Young's squad has performed against similarly ranked teams. There are a number of different college basketball team ranking systems out there, and Kenpom tends to be the "default" across the college hoops landscape, so we'll us that.
BYU: 23 overall, 10 offense, 57 defense
NC State: 34 overall, 20 offense, 86 defense
Texas: 37 overall, 13 offense, 112 defense
On the whole, NC State and Texas rank somewhere in the mid-30s in the country. As a benchmark, let's take a look at how BYU performed this year against the three teams ranked closest to the mid-30s. Fortunately for Cougar fans we have some solid data points in previous matchups against Miami (No. 31), Villanova (No. 33), and Clemson (No. 36)
BYU beat No. 31 Miami, 72-62
Earlier this season, BYU beat No. 31 Miami 72-62 in the ESPN Events Invitational tournament on a neutral court. This win moved the Cougars to a 5-1 record, but in that game, they lost Dawson Baker to a season-ending injury.
A couple of lessons from the Miami win can translate to NC State or Texas. First, Kennard Davis Jr. had a fantastic game with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 4-of-7 from the 3-point line. The Cougars will need this type of scoring from Moo if they are to succeed in the postseason.
Second, Keba Keita was a monster in the pain with six points, 10 rebounds, and SEVEN blocked shots. Keita's impact has been up-and-down this year, but if he can patrol the paint in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament like he did against Miami, the Cougars should emerge with a win.
BYU vanquished No. 33 Villanova, 71-66
In what feels like ages ago, BYU beat No. 33 Villanova by five in their first game of the season -- and AJ Dybantsa's college debut -- in the Hall of Fame series in Las Vegas. The main takeaways from this win that need to transfer over into March Madness are these: Take care of the ball and guard the 3-point line.
In beating Villanova, the Cougars had just four turnovers the entire game. They will hopefully be able to replicate that type of ball control against either NC State or Texas, neither of which is known for playing lock-down defense. BYU also defended the 3-point line well against Nova, forcing them into a 10-of-35 (29%) shooting performance from deep.
BYU toppled No. 36 Clemson, 67-64
The main lesson learned in beating Clemson earlier this season that BYU needs to remember in the NCAA Tourney is don't start slow!
BYU fans with good memories recall the Cougars falling behind 43-22 to the Tigers at halftime of the Jimmy V Classic, only to roar back to life as the "Second Half Cougs" went on a shocking 45-21 barrage to eek out an incredible 67-64 victory. If Kevin Young's squad comes out listless or lethargic against NC State or Texas, both of which are really good offensive teams, they may not be able to claw their way back.
BYU fans should be cautiously optimistic
BYU played three games this season against teams ranked somewhere near NC State and Texas. All three games were played on neutral courts. The Cougars went 3-0.
Now, the one big caveat is BYU had Richie Saunders in each of those three games and they won't have him suiting up in March Madness. Even then, AJ Dybantsa, Robert Wright III, and the rest of the Cougars are finding their form without their senior leader. Even without Richie this squad has taken down Kenpom's No. 6 Iowa State and No. 20 Texas Tech.
While BYU basketball fans know better than to get cocky, there are definitely reasons to be cautiously optimistic that the Cougars will emerge from Round 1 with a victory over either NC State or Texas.