Egor Demin will almost assuredly be the first BYU Cougar selected in the NBA Draft since Jimmer Fredette in 2011. Watching the young Russian leave Provo for the NBA likely fills many Cougar fans with a mixture of both excitement and apprehension.
When considering what awaits Egor at the next level, conversations among BYU fans may sound like the scene from the Tom Hanks cult classic movie Joe Versus the Volcano:
“I know he can get the job! But can he do the job?”
“I know he can get the job…”
With March Madness now in the rearview mirror, most NBA websites have updated their mock drafts, and little should change between now and when the draft is held in June. Here’s where Egor is projected to land according to several credible sites:
ESPN - No. 12, Chicago Bulls
CBS Sports - No. 12, Dallas Mavericks (Adam Finkelstein), No. 13, Atlanta Hawks (Gary Parrish), and No. 14, Atlanta Hawks (Kyle Boone)
Tankathon - No. 14, Atlanta Hawks
Bleacher Report - No. 15, San Antonio Spurs
In determining if Egor Demin is prepared to succeed in the NBA, it’s important to remember that his NBA future isn’t just determined by his individual skill set. It’s going to be heavily influenced by the team that ultimately drafts him. If Demin is selected somewhere between No. 12 and No. 15, his opportunity to succeed right out of the gate will vary greatly depending on which jersey he wears.
The best landing spot to help Egor Demin quickly succeed in the NBA would be going No.12 to the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs, as you likely know, shockingly traded away Luka Doncic and Egor could pretty naturally step into the void at point guard. Kyrie Irving is an effective off-ball scorer and only has one year left on his contract. Dallas's backup point guards Spencer Dinwiddie, Dante Exum, and Brandon Williams are all free agents after this season.
The Bulls, Hawks, and Spurs all have deep guard rotations with some ball-dominant players, and Demin’s path to success in the NBA is as a true point guard who initiates the offense. Here’s to hoping he lands on a team that will maximize his skillset.
“...but can he do the job?”
After his one and only season of Big 12 college basketball play, it’s pretty clear where Egor Demin’s skills are prepared to succeed in the NBA, and what he’s going to need to develop.
First, let’s summarize his strengths that will enable his immediate success.
Demin is a preternaturally gifted passer. At 6-foot-9 he has the ability to see over defenders. But more importantly, he has the ability to somewhat “see into the future” and anticipate where guys are going to be. He makes passes that hit cutting players in stride or sends them to spots that gets them open. Many people compare his passing to LeBron James, but I view him more of a Magic Johnson.
With the free-flowing nature of the NBA and a compressed 24-second shot clock, this skill alone could put Egor in the Day 1 starting lineup for the right team.
Now, in order to succeed in the NBA, there are a number of areas Egor is going to need to improve.
His scoring ability in general and his outside shot specifically aren’t ready for the NBA. In 20 Big 12 conference games he averaged just 9.8 points in 27.2 minutes per game while shooting an inefficient 38.8% from the floor and an abysmal 22.2% from the 3-point line. Throw in a 66.7% free throw percentage, and Egor today isn’t an NBA scoring threat.
This is a big deal. In order for Demin to create passing lanes and collapse NBA defenses, his opponents are going to need to stay glued to him. If they sag off and dare him to shoot, the entire offense can bog down. He’s going to need to develop and NBA-ready 3-point shot, and quick.
Egor is also going to have to get stronger. He’s still just a teenager and will fill out in time, but he’s super skinny at 6-foot-9 and 190 pounds. Bigger guards will be able to muscle him out of position on both sides of the ball.
He’s also going to improve his lateral speed to stay up with quicker NBA guards. While Egor wasn't ever a defensive liability, he also wasn't a lockdown defender. The good news is under Kevin Young he learned NBA defensive schemes like the peel-and-switch, so she should hit the ground running scheme-wise.
Is Egor Demin prepared to succeed in the NBA?
As of today, it’s a mixed bag. He will need to land on the right team that needs a ball-dominant guard to initiate the offense, then have the spacing around him to let Egor cook. He has already developed NBA-level talent there. But that also assumes he can find a more consistent outside shot and hang with bigger, stronger, and faster NBA players on the defensive end. That could take some time.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Egor make an NBA All-Star team a few years down the road as his body and his skills adjust to the professional game.
BYU fans might need to have some patience, though, as he will have a lot to learn -- and fix -- right out of the gate.