This is normally the part where I comment on last Saturday's game.
So, how about Delaney Gibb's triple-double against Montana? That was the first triple-double by a BYU women's basketball player in 40 years.
There. I commented on last Saturday's game. Now let's move on. Here are my formula's predictions for the remainder of BYU's games:
Baylor 22 BYU 28
BYU 24 Kansas 25
Cincinnati 23 BYU 34
Yep. BYU's still losing to Kansas. This will put BYU at 9-3, which will not get them a playoff at-large bid, and if all the other games go the way my formula says they will, it won't be good enough to get them to the Big 12 championship either. Instead, it would be Utah vs Arizona in the Big 12 title game, and Arizona would win.
Starting this week, I'm going to be doing a bowl projection for BYU based on what my formula says about the rest of the games. If they all go the way my formula says they'll go, the top four options for the Big 12 bowls will be BYU, Houston, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St, all of whom will be 9-3. (Utah won't be an option because of the stupid situation with the Pac 12.)
The Alamo Bowl will have the first choice, and based on the absurd decision they made last year, taking 8-4 TCU instead of 11-2 BYU, it seems like they love their Texas teams, and given that Texas Tech has a much higher profile than Houston, I'm going to guess they take Texas Tech.
Next up is the Pop Tarts Bowl, and bowl games generally don't like taking the same team two years in a row unless it's an obvious choice (like it should've been for the Alamo Bowl last year), so I'm going to say they take Oklahoma St, who is also a high-profile team with quite the story.
The next pick goes to the Texas Bowl. They took Houston last year, so I'm going to say they take BYU this year.
Now, let's determine who their opponent will be. The other conference with a Texas Bowl tie in is the SEC. The SEC's bowl tie ins don't have a clear pecking order like the Big 12's, so they'll probably send someone geographically close to Texas who hasn't played in that bowl game for a while. I'm going to say they select Oklahoma, who will be 7-5.
Here's the problem with that projection, though: it's not disappointing enough. As I wrote about back in June, BYU always gets the short end of the stick on Selection Sunday. Right now, anything short of the college football playoff would be disappointing for BYU, but if they actually do lose to Kansas and finish 9-3, being matched up with Oklahoma is going to feel like a win. So that means it's not going to happen.
Remember how Oklahoma complained about having to play in Provo back in 2023? I would not put it past them to pull a Notre Dame and back out of this matchup. So I'm going to say they do. All the other good candidates from the SEC will have already either accepted their invitations to other bowl games or also opted out, so the Texas Bowl will have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and take 6-6 Mississippi St. 9-3 BYU vs 6-6 Mississippi St in the Texas Bowl. Yep. This sounds a lot more realistic.
I have even worse news. My dog, Wooford Woodwoof, says Baylor's going to beat BYU by one. He was wrong this last week, though. He said BYU was going to win by 6, and they lost by 8. It was the first time his prediction wasn't significantly better than everyone else's. I guess when he was looking into the future, he accidentally looked at the halftime score instead of the final score. Hopefully he's making a similar mistake this time.
Alright. Let's be done with all this doom and gloom. It's time for my weekly competition with Dick Harmon. Here are my formula's predictions from last week, and here are his.
For each game where both of us made a prediction, whoever got closest in terms of the point spread (or whoever picked the correct team if we picked different teams) gets 2 points, with potential bonuses of +4 for the BYU game, +2 for the Utah game, +2 for ranked matchups, +2 for nonconference Big 12 vs P4 games, x2 if we picked different teams, and x2 if we got it exactly right.
Whoever gets the closest in terms of the point total gets 1 point, with potential bonuses of +2 for the BYU game, +1 for the Utah game, +1 for ranked matchups, +1 for nonconference Big 12 vs P4 games, x2 if our predicted point totals were at least 15 points apart, and x2 if we got it exactly right.
I'm currently leading the season series 6-3, having won 6 of the last 7, and since the BYU-Utah game is going to be worth a ton of points, and since I picked Utah, and he picked BYU, this should be an easy win for me, right? Well, let's see.
Game | My formula's prediction | Harmon's prediction | Actual Score | Point Spread Winner | Point Spread Bonuses | Point Total Winner | Point Total Bonuses | My points | Harmon's points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas vs Missouri | Texas 22-20 | Texas 24-21 | Texas 34-20 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Harmon | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 0 | 6 |
Iowa St vs Baylor | Baylor 32-22 | Baylor 24-21 | Baylor 42-31 | Me | None | Me | None | 3 | 0 |
Oklahoma St vs Kansas St | KSU 34-33 | OSU 21-19 | OSU 66-28 | Harmon | x2 (disagreed on winner) | Me | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 2 | 4 |
Alabama vs LSU | LSU 29-19 | LSU 27-24 | Bama 31-13 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Me | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 2 | 4 |
Oregon vs Ohio St | OSU 28-20 | OSU 28-21 | Oregon 41-28 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Harmon | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 0 | 6 |
Cincinnati vs Houston | Houston 41-33 | Houston 37-17 | Houston 31-24 | Me | None | Harmon | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 2 | 2 |
UCF vs Kansas | Kansas 31-24 | Kansas 33-24 | UCF 33-32 | Me | None | Harmon | None | 2 | 1 |
Boise St vs Colorado St | BSU 42-31 | BSU 38-17 | BSU 64-38 | Harmon | None | Me | x2 (disagreed by at least 15) | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky vs Tennessee | Tennessee 24-18 | Tennessee 27-24 | Tennessee 34-6 | Me | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Me | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 6 | 0 |
Miami vs Notre Dame | ND 35-23 | ND 34-31 | ND 31-24 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) | Me | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 2 | 4 |
Georgia vs Ole Miss | Ole Miss 28-25 | Georgia 38-28 | Georgia 42-7 | Harmon | +2 (ranked vs ranked) x2 (disagreed on winner) | Me | +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 2 | 8 |
Iowa vs Northwestern | NW 24-23 | Iowa 24-21 | Iowa 24-10 | Harmon | x2 (disagreed on winner) | Harmon | None | 0 | 5 |
West Virginia vs Texas Tech | TT 42-30 | TT 31-27 | TT 53-48 | Harmon | None | Me | None | 1 | 2 |
Fresno St vs Utah St | USU 28-17 | USU 24-21 | USU 17-10 | Tie | None | Tie | None | 0 | 0 |
BYU vs Utah | Utah 28-26 | BYU 24-21 | Utah 28-20 | Me | +4 (BYU game) +2 (Utah game) +2 (ranked vs ranked) x2 (disagreed on winner) | Harmon | +2 (BYU game) +1 (Utah game) +1 (ranked vs ranked) | 20 | 5 |
And the final score is... Harmon 49 Higinbotham 44. So wait. I got 20 points that I didn't want from BYU losing to Utah, and I lost anyway? That is incredibly depressing. If you would've told me I was going to lose this week, I would've been like, "Yea, that probably means BYU's going to beat Utah." Nope. At least I still lead the series 6-4, but man. This is by far the most depressing article of this series. For multiple reasons.
Here are my formula's predictions for this week:
Houston 30 Colorado 31
Cincinnati 31 Iowa St 38
Duke 24 Miami 28
Ohio St 32 Northwestern 23
Wake Forest 27 SMU 29
Kansas St 20 TCU 30
Arizona St 21 UCF 24
Baylor 22 BYU 28
Boston College 17 Notre Dame 32
Michigan 17 Oregon 25
Missouri 19 Georgia 31
USC 17 Indiana 27
Ole Miss 22 Oklahoma 28
Kansas 36 West Virginia 32
Oregon St 31 Boise St 41
Florida 21 Kentucky 24
Texas 18 LSU 24
Utah 27 Arizona 32
Texas Tech 33 Oklahoma St 44
Utah St 23 San Diego St 24
Colorado St 32 Washington St 34
As I always say at the end of every article, remember to be kind to the officials.
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