BYU just got their first win in Fort Worth in 15 years (or 20 if you don't count their win over Tulsa in the 2011 Armed Forces Bowl). And yet, a lot of fans are reacting as if BYU needed a clock error and a hail mary to beat a MAC team. But I think this win was more impressive than people think.
Their defense played lights out, and while their offense only scored 17 points, it was against a TCU defense that had given up 12.5 points per game. And they did it without their two best running backs, without their best offensive lineman, and with Bear Bachmeier struggling to grip the football. They even covered the spread.
Unfortunately, this game did not go well as far as my formula was concerned. My formula's favorite stat is yards per play, and after BYU had 8 yards per play in their first two FBS games, including an incredible 9.6 yards per play against Colorado St, they only had 3.5 yards per play against TCU. This dramatically decreased BYU's offensive rating from 43.5 to 34.9. On the bright side, their defensive rating went from 17 to 15.3, which is good because lower is better for the defensive rating. But still, the predictions for most of BYU's games are going to take a hit.
Formula predictions for remaining BYU football schedule
BYU 30 Iowa St 23
Notre Dame 25 BYU 20
BYU 22 UCF 21
BYU 31 Arizona St 18
Utah 29 BYU 18
BYU 29 Baylor 21
BYU 26 Kansas 24
BYU 32 Cincinnati 19
And then in the Big 12 championship, my formula says BYU's losing a second Holy War to Utah, 27-20.
At least the Notre Dame game is closer now after Notre Dame's not-so-dominant 37-26 win against North Carolina.
And now for my friendly competition with Dick Harmon. Here are my formula's predictions for last week, and here are his. For each game where we both made a prediction, whoever gets the closest in terms of the point spread (or whoever picks the correct winner if we disagree on the winner) gets 2 points, +4 if it's the BYU game, +2 if it's the Utah game, +2 if it's a matchup of ranked teams, +2 if it's a Big 12 team against a team from another P4 conference, x2 if we disagreed on who would win, and x2 if we're exactly right.
Also, whoever gets the closest in terms of the point total gets 1 point, +2 if it's the BYU game, +1 if it's the Utah game, +1 if it's a matchup of ranked teams, +1 if it's a Big 12 team against a team from another P4 conference, x2 if our predicted point totals were at least 15 points apart, and x2 if we were exactly right. He won the first two, and I've won the last two. Let's see who takes the lead in the series.
Game | Higinbotham's prediction | Harmon's prediction | Actual Score | Point Spread Winner (+2) | Point Spread Bonuses | Point Total Winner (+1) | Point Total Bonuses | Higinbotham points scored | Harmon points scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UCF vs Houston | Houston 33-21 | Houston 28-21 | Houston 27-17 | Higinbotham | None | Harmon | None | 2 | 1 |
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas | Kansas 35-16 | Kansas 24-10 | Kansas 55-0 | Higinbotham | None | Higinbotham | x2 (Disagreed by at least 15) | 4 | 0 |
West Virginia vs Iowa St | ISU 32-22 | WV 31-24 | ISU 45-42 | Higinbotham | x2 (Disagreed on winner) | Harmon | None | 4 | 1 |
BYU vs TCU | BYU 28-22 | BYU 28-13 | BYU 17-10 | Higinbotham | +4 (BYU game) | Harmon | +2 (BYU game) | 6 | 3 |
Texas Tech vs Colorado | TT 27-23 | TT 31-17 | TT 29-7 | Harmon | None | Harmon | None | 0 | 3 |
Baylor vs Arizona St | ASU 26-20 | ASU 34-28 | Baylor 55-19 | Tie | None | Harmon | x2 (Disagreed by at least 15) | 0 | 2 |
Cincinnati vs Arizona | Arizona 32-25 | Arizona 33-31 | Arizona 34-7 | Higinbotham | None | Higinbotham | None | 3 | 0 |
Notre Dame vs North Carolina | ND 31-13 | ND 34-16 | ND 37-26 | Tie | None | Harmon | None | 0 | 1 |
Alabama vs Mississippi St | MSU 32-30 | MSU 24-21 | Bama 56-23 | Higinbotham | +2 (ranked matchup) | Higinbotham | +1 (ranked matchup) x2 (disagreed by more than 15) | 8 | 0 |
Ohio St vs Iowa St | OSU 30-21 | OSU 38-21 | OSU 31-14 | Harmon | +2 (ranked matchup) x2 (exactly right) | Higinbotham | +1 (ranked matchup) | 2 | 8 |
Florida vs Missouri | Mizzou 28-27 | Florida 42-14 | Mizzou 45-17 | Higinbotham | +2 (ranked matchup) x2 (disagreed on winner) | Harmon | +1 (ranked matchup) | 8 | 2 |
Miami vs Clemson | Miami 29-19 | Miami 37-21 | Miami 41-13 | Harmon | None | Harmon | None | 0 | 3 |
Utah St vs Boise St | BSU 32-23 | BSU 34-24 | BSU 37-18 | Harmon | None | Higinbotham | x2 (Exactly right) | 2 | 2 |
The final score for week 5 is... Higinbotham 39, Harmon 26. I have gone from down 2-0 to up 3-2. I knew that as soon as I had some data from this season to use, I was going to start winning.
Let's see if we can make it four in a row. Here are my formula's picks for this week:
Louisville 36 Florida St 30
Utah St 26 Washington St 14
BYU 30 Iowa St 23
Arizona 34 West Virginia 32
Indiana 30 Nebraska 25
Missouri 35 Texas A&M 18
Oklahoma St 25 UCF 23
Florida 37 South Carolina 35
Kansas St 32 Houston 30
Notre Dame 45 Stanford 11
Texas 19 Oklahoma 16
Oregon 29 UCLA 27
LSU 29 Kentucky 21
Alabama 27 Georgia 25
Penn St 35 USC 23
Utah 34 Kansas 18
Arizona St 37 Hawaii 17
As I always say at the end of every article, remember to be kind to the officials.
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