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The one reason why BYU football will win or lose against TCU this weekend

Make or break, this weekend will be huge for BYU.
ByCalvin Barrett
Sep 19, 2026; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA;  BYU Cougars wide receiver Legend Glasker (1) catches a pass in the first half against Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Andrew Rydland-Imagn Images
Sep 19, 2026; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; BYU Cougars wide receiver Legend Glasker (1) catches a pass in the first half against Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Rydland-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BYU football embraces the opportunity to be tested on the road. Beyond the fact that their fans travel exceptionally well -- slightly lessening the impact of the home crowd -- this is a team that believes they can win anywhere against anyone. A road win just looks better to voters and committee members, right?

So they approach this weekend's matchup with TCU. The Horned Frogs are stumbling off the starting line and enter this game 2-2, having lost their only two Power Four contests in ugly fashion, and seem to be reaching the tipping point with head coach Sonny Dykes, who lifted the Frogs to the national championship game several years ago, but has failed to eclipse that level of success since.

Tenth-ranked BYU, on the opposite sideline, is a freight train. Kalani Sitake is cruising off the momentum of two consecutive 11+ win seasons, returning foundational pieces in freshman phenom Bear Bachmeier at quarterback, Big 12 OPOY LJ Martin at running back, an All-American offensive line, and nearly every major contributor on the defensive side of the football. In other words, the Cougars are perfectly fit to make another run at the Big 12 title game, and TCU is just another step on the staircase to Arlington.

But before these former Mountain West rivals can do battle on the field, it would be premature to jot down this contest as an automatic win for the boys in blue. After all, anything can happen in the chaotic Big 12 Conference.

So let's explore the biggest reasons why BYU can win -- or lose -- in Fort Worth on Saturday.

Why BYU wins at TCU: Poise

BYU has the personnel that knows how to win -- they've done it regularly.

And with a run-heavy attack and elite receiving weapons on the outside (Legend Glasker could have a very big day this weekend), taking control of this road game is as simple as handing the ball off to LJ Martin and setting the tone with the run game.

Such a steady, experienced front limits mistakes and forces the opposition to execute with near perfection or face the agony of falling behind. The Cougars will control the clock, and they'll control possession -- an area of the game that sank the Horned Frogs against UCF a week ago.

If BYU limits mistakes, controls the pace of the game, and executes their game plan, it's hard to envision a scenario where TCU makes it out of this game with a win.

Why BYU loses at TCU: History

But history hasn't been kind to the Cougars when making the trip down to TCU. They have been blown out consistently on the Frogs' home turf, losing each of their last three games in Fort Worth by 25 points or more, including a 44-11 drubbing in BYU's first season in the Big 12 -- which remains the largest margin of victory in the series's history.

Of course, most recent history suggests that the Cougars should have the upper-hand after they tore TCU to shreds last season in a 44-13 final. It was a night game in Provo, and we all understand that means that game was played under unique circumstances, but with BYU returning a virtually identical squad (if not improved across the board) and TCU appearing much weaker than last year's 9-4 edition, that's advantage BYU.

So is TCU's home field advantage truly that suffocating for BYU? Or will the visiting Cougars snap the streak and perform much like they did a year ago?

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