The topic of expanding the College Football Playoffs is top of mind for just about everybody who cares about the game. Big 12 coaches recently shared their unanimous support of expanding from 12 to 24 teams, which isn't surprising coming from a conference where every team except the conference champion has been shut out of the CFP since the 12-team format was introduced.
The Big Ten is also pushing a 24-team playoff model.
The SEC, as per usual, is approaching this issue in a tone-deaf way demonstrating they are "unserious people" as they stomp their feet and rail to the heavens about how their conference is still undefeated in hypothetical matchups.
Some people want to keep the CFP at 12. Others prefer a 16-game model. Still others want 24 teams squaring off for the national championship. But none of these three options is optimal. Fortunately for you, I've figured out not only the correct number -- which is 20, by the way -- but how to evolve the structure of the CFP to make every week of the regular season meaningful.
The perfect 20-team College Football Playoff structure
As a BYU fan and Big 12 loyalist, 12 teams in the CFP simply aren't enough. If BYU can go 11-1 and lose in the conference championship game, with both losses coming to Texas Tech, and not even be seriously considered for CFP inclusion, there's something wrong with the system. I want more than 12 teams, and most BYU and/or Big 12 fans should want the same.
The ideal number of CFP teams is 20, but other meaningful changes need to be made to the tournament format as well.
Before proceeding, I'll just give a bullet point summary of the features of the perfect 20-team CFP, then explain each component in more detail:
1. Teams: 20 teams total.
2. Automatic bids: 10 total, including the top two teams in each Power Four conference plus the highest-ranked non-Power Four teams.
3. At-large bids: 10 total comprised of the top 10 ranked teams that did not receive automatic bids.
4. First round: The top 12 ranked teams get first round byes and the lowest eight ranked teams play each other. This gets the field trimmed down to 16 after one round.
5. Choose your opponent: Starting in Round 2 (top 16 teams), instead of playing by seeding such as No. 1 plays No. 16, No. 2 plays No. 15, etc., the highest ranked team gets to choose their opponent, regardless of seed.
Got it? If not, let's break it down in more detail.
20 teams with 10 automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large
At 20 teams the field is broad enough to be inclusive, but still selective enough to welcome only the most worthy teams in the country.
In my 20-team model there will be 10 automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large bids. The top two teams in each of the Power Four conferences are automatically in. Two additional spots will go to the top two ranked non-Power Four teams in the country. If the Power Conference schools get 18 of the 20 spots, that's plenty. And as a long-time BYU supporter, I railed for decades about how the power conferences froze out teams like BYU during its independent and MWC/WAC days, so it would be hypocritical of me to not give another expansion slot to the Boise States of the world.
The Top 12 ranked teams get a first round bye. This CFP design will introduce intrigue in the final weeks of the season as teams not only try to make the tournament, but secure a first round bye. The final weeks of the season will be massively important for teams ranked between like No. 8 and No. 16 as they battle for a Top 12 ranking and first round bye.
The bottom eight ranked teams play each other in the first round, thus getting to 16 teams in the second round.
The "Choose Your Opponent' feature
Things get fun in the second round.
Rather than simply having No. 1 play No. 16, No. 2 play No. 15, etc. I would implement a "choose your opponent" feature. This would allow No. 1 to choose their opponent in the second round, regardless of their opponent's seed. For example, if Indiana is No. 1 and thinks their best chance at winning is facing No. 10 Texas, they could pick the Longhorns as their opponent.
The No. 2 seed then chooses their opponet among the remaining 14 teams. Then the No. 3 seed chooses their opponent, and so on.
There are two reasons for this wonderful "choose your opponent" feature. First, it keeps the highest ranked teams in the country, i.e. the top five or top ten teams, 100% invested throughout the entirety of the regular season. One of the arguments against expanding the CFP and eliminating conference championships is the nation's top teams will rest their players toward the end of the season once they've virtually locked down a CFP bid. Giving teams the opportunity to choose their opponent will discourage late-season "load management" in college football.
Earning the right to choose your opponent based on your regular season ranking is a massive strategic advantage. Some coaches would sell their souls to be able to pick their opponent. Heck, some of them have already done that for much lower payoffs.
The "choose your opponent" feature is active every round starting in Round 2, right up to the championship game.
The second reason for the "choose your opponent" approach is it would be incredible television. Imagine all of the media speculation about which team will choose which opponent and why. Then imagine ESPN going to No. 1 Indiana and having them say, "We want No. 10 Texas!"
Then imagine how disrespected Texas will feel.
This weekly TV show allowing teams to pick their opponents would be the height of drama and intrigue. It would be great television and the weekly "call-out" ceremony would draw massive ratings. It's perfect. It's beautiful.
The summary of the perfect 20-team CFP
In the end, the solution to the CFP's dilemma is to expand to 20 teams. 10 teams automatically qualify while 10 more earn at-large bids. The top 12 teams get a first round bye. Starting in Round 2 (with 16 teams), the highest remaining seeds get to choose their opponent.
Let's hope conference leaders and college coaches choose to be serious about fixing the College Football Playoffs.
If they are, the solution has just been given to them.
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