I just want to state this up front: I'm a passionate, lifelong BYU fan.
I was a gleeful 10-year-old when the Cougars were crowned national champions in 1984. I rushed the field as a teenager in 1990 when Ty Detmer and BYU beat No. 1 Miami. The first game I attended as a BYU student was in 1996 when Steve Sarkisian led the Cougs to a thrilling win over No. 13 Texas A&M.
I nearly wept for joy when BYU got the invitation to the Big 12.
Please remember these facts before proceeding in reading the rest of this prediction.
Because in addition to being a BYU homer, I'm also an objective, rational observer of college football. Of course, I have my pro-BYU biases, but even then, my blue-tinted goggles aren't dark enough to see through two major injuries that are going to make life hard for the No. 8 Cougars as they face the No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday.
Key Injury No. 1 - Running back LJ Martin
Without dominant running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, the Cougars have yet to show they can consistently run the ball between the tackles. This is going to create massive issues for offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick in designing a winning game plan.
BYU's offensive success in recent years has been predicated on establishing a solid ground game to then set up the pass. When LJ Martin is healthy, BYU's offense just hums along. Now in his fourth season with the Cougars, Martin averages a healthy 5.5 yards per carry, and much of that comes running between the backles and churning out yards after contact.
Without LJ Martin, BYU is relying on converted safety Preston Rex, true freshman walk-on Journee Tonga, and true freshman Devaughn Eka. These three players combined have rushed for 422 career yards.
While Sione Moa might return from his latest injury in time to play in this one (he's been cleared to play), Cougar fans should temper their expectations. Moa has had very little time for conditioning and getting back into game shape. He has also only rushed for 258 yards over three seasons, and he isn't a lead back like LJ Martin, who can grind out yards against a stacked box.
Look, I love Rex, Tonga, Eka, and Moa. These are my guys. And at the same time, none of them are proven between-the-tackles runners.
BYU is going to struggle to establish the run. When that happens, Aaron Roderick often reverts to quick screens and jet sweeps. Notre Dame has too much team speed and BYU's offense will have too few options for this strategy to work time and again.
Due to the lack of a consistent run game, BYU's offense will likely be the Bear Bachmeier Show.
And there's another injury that is going to make life hard on Bear in the passing game.
Key Injury No. 2 - Right tackle Andrew Gentry
Bear Bachmeier is going to have to drop back and pass a lot against Notre Dame, and the injury to veteran right tackle Andrew Gentry is going to make that difficult. Gentry knows BYU's system and previously won a national championship with Michigan. He has been there, done that.
Gentry's replacements? Not so much.
Since Gentry's injury, BYU has been rotating redshirt freshman Siosiua Latu-Finau and true freshman Bott Mulitalo. Both of them have massive talent, but they lack experience. Mulitalo, in particular, has been flagged for more than a few pre-snap penalities and holding calls.
BYU's young tackles will be going up against Boubacar Traore, a projected early pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Traore is a star and the combination of Latu-Finau and Mulitalo will have their hands full with him. This will likely lead to penalties, pressures, and sacks that routinely puts BYU's offense behind the chains.
Predicting how the game will play out, and the final score
I want more than anything for BYU to win this game. I've already written that it is the most significant game in BYU history, and a victory would give the Cougars the national respect they've been clamoring for.
While BYU's stout defense will be just fine, the offense will probably struggle. The lack of a consistent run game will force the Cougars to the edges, and Notre Dame has the team speed and skill to neutralize these actions if overutilized. This will require BYU to drop back and pass too often, and the Cougs will struggle to contain the rush off the right edge.
Even then, perhaps BYU's defense is so dominant that Notre Dame's offense bogs down. Perhaps Bear Bachmeier has his "Heisman moment" and throws for 350 yards, runs for 75 more, and scores multiple touchdowns in a massive BYU win. Bachmeier is good enough to make that happen, and I sincerely hope it does.
But when I look at this objectively, the losses of LJ Martin and Andrew Gentry will most likely create a cascading effect that will leave BYU's offense stagnant, and Cougar fans disappointed.
Final score: Notre Dame 24, BYU 13
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