Last year, BYU thumped TCU 44-13 to get to 9-1 on the season and rise to No. 11 in the national polls. The Cougars' 31-point beatdown of the Horned Frogs at LaVell Edwards Stadium was cathartic for BYU fans who are old enough to remember the good ol' Mountain West days and who recalled TCU's stretch of dominance in this matchup.
Before jumping into the prediction for this week's game, let's take a look back on the recent BYU-TCU rivalry, and why more than a few Cougar fans (myself included) are nervous about the trip down to Fort Worth. Here's a summary of TCU's dominance of this "rivalry" (with a lower case "r") that stretches back to the MWC, BYU independence, and now the Big 12:
2008 - TCU 32, BYU 7. The No. 9 Cougars were 6-0 and riding high when they went on the road to face an unranked TCU squad. The Horned Frogs worked the Cougars 32-7, causing BYU to fall to No. 18 in the polls before finishing the year ranked No. 25.
2009 - TCU 38, BYU 7. No. 10 TCU steamrolled BYU 38-7 against a Cougars team that went 11-2 with three ranked wins against No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 22 Utah, and No. 16 Oregon State in the Liberty Bowl. The Cougs finished ranked No. 12 in the nation in 2009, but still got obliterated by TCU.
2010 - TCU 31, BYU 3. For the third straight year before exiting the Mountain West Conference, BYU got destroyed by a then No. 4-ranked Horned Frogs squad that went on to win the Rose Bowl.
2011 - TCU 38, BYU 28. The Cougars bolted the MWC after the 2010 season, but they still had TCU on their schedule as a football independent in 2011. TCU won their fourth straight against the Cougs in this one, 38-28.
2023 - TCU 44, BYU 11. Jump ahead 12 years and the Cougars and Horned Frogs are now in the Big 12 together. In BYU's first season as a Power Four team, TCU reminded the Cougs how far they still needed to climb in order to compete with the big boys in a 33-point shellacking.
Now, the rivalry flipped last year as BYU snapped their five-game losing streak to TCU with an outstanding 44-13 home win against Sonny Dykes' squad. Here's what the Cougars learned about the Horned Frogs a season ago, and why it matters in predicting this week's outcome.
What BYU learned last year against TCU, and why it matters this year
Lesson No. 1 - Bear Bachmeier is a dual-threat beast. A season ago BYU's true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier had one of his best games against TCU. He completed 23-of-33 passes (70%) for 296 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed 10 times for 59 yards and another score. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick saw something in last year's matchup that allowed Bear to thrive, and he'll do so again this weekend.
Lesson No. 2 - The tight ends will feast. Last year tight end Carsen Ryan had four receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown against TCU. It was Ryan's third highest receiving total on the season. Aaron Roderick saw something in TCU's secondary that allowed his tight end to feast. With Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga now in the fold, BYU's tight ends will put a lot of pressure on TCU's linebackers and secondary. Look for one of BYU's tight ends to have a big game.
Lesson No. 3 - BYU had four sacks last year. BYU's Achilles' heel this year has been the general lack of ability to generate sacks. Yes, pressures are good, but quarterbacks can still complete passes in the face of pressure. Sacks wreck drives. Last year the Cougars generated four sacks against TCU. Quarterback Jaden Craig has been sacked nine times through four games, and BYU's defense should be able to get to him for the second straight season.
As far as my prediction goes, I'm perhaps overconfident that Bear Bachmeier is going to be in total command of BYU's offense, Aaron Roderick will have a brilliant game plan after a bye week, and BYU's defensive front will get to quarterback Jaden Craig. Look for a convincing road win as the No. 10 Cougars continue to build their CFP resume.
Prediction: BYU 31, TCU 17
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