When it comes to predicting BYU games, I’m normally conservative.
I went on the record predicting the Cougars would drop their game at East Carolina. I was wrong.
Last week I predicted BYU would lose against a very good Arizona team. I was wrong again – though barely.
This week, I’m throwing caution to the wind and predicting that the Cougars will manhandle the Utah Utes in the 2025 edition of the Holy War. I had better be right this time.
Why BYU will win the Holy War
The Cougars will win this week because they are the better team and they are playing at home.
By saying “BYU is the better team,” I mean the Cougars have beaten Utah twice in a row, they finished last year ranked higher than Utah, and they are ranked higher than the Utes again this year. All that plus the Cougars are playing at home. Give me Kalani Sitake & Co. in a landslide!
From a strategic standpoint, Texas Tech annihilated Utah 34-10 earlier this year at Rice Eccles Stadium, giving BYU the blueprint to follow. The Red Raiders won by doing what BYU does best by pounding the run with solid running backs and a mobile quarterback. Backup QB Will Hammond entered the game in the third quarter and gouged the Utes' defense for 61 rushing yards. Running backs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams were effective on the ground with 24 times for 110 yards.
Expect more of this from BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, who are both physical, punishing runners. They will grind the Utes defense into submission.
BYU is fortunate that they have learned some tough lessons over the last three weeks while still going 3-0 in Big 12 play. Against Colorado they learned to not sleepwalk right out of the gate and fall behind 14-0. Against West Virginia they learned about the need to go for the jugular and put teams away when they have the chance. Last week at Arizona they learned how to rally late, make big plays in big moments, and win when the pressure is on.
Coach Kalani Sitake will ensure his team internalizes all three of these lessons in an emphatic win over Utah. The Cougars will strike early. They won’t take their foot off the gas pedal once they have a lead. When moments arise that require clutch performances, the Cougars will be ready.
While Utah’s front four is great, Texas Tech proved they can be vulnerable. Look for BYU’s offense to dominate time of possession and out up points with a dominant run game, keying the Cougars convincing win.
Why BYU could lose the Holy War
While I’m bullish on a BYU win this week, the biggest fear I have is the running ability of Utah quarterback Devon Dampier. The transfer from New Mexico can be electric when he tucks and runs, and BYU’s defense has been shaky against mobile quarterbacks this year. Dampier rushed for 1,166 yards at New Mexico last season and has been a true dual-threat for the Utes thus far.
While BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill is an absolute football wizard, there are two areas that continue to be problematic for his defense: Pressuring the quarterback and containing mobile quarterbacks.
Both of these weaknesses could be on full display against the Utes. Utah has a tremendous offensive line while BYU’s defensive line struggles to get pressure. Dampier could have a lot of time in clean pockets in this one. The more BYU struggles to pressure Dampier, the less they will be able to spy him with a linebacker to limit his running game. If BYU loses, this will likely be the downfall.
That said, I trust Jay Hill to game plan a way to shut down the Utes offense.
My bold prediction: BYU vs Utah
- BYU has beaten Utah twice in a row.
- Utah went 2-7 in Big 12 play last year.
- BYU went 7-2 in Big 12 play last year.
- No. 15 BYU is ranked higher than No. 23 Utah this year.
- BYU is playing at home.
- BYU has the players to replicate what Texas Tech did to the Utes.
- BYU is going to win convincingly.
Final score: BYU 27, Utah 17