As I've already previewed this week, both No. 11 BYU (9-1) and Cincinnati (7-3) have their respective seasons hanging in the balance of this weekend's matchup. BYU controls its own destiny to the Big 12 championship game and is vying for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoffs. Cincy, meanwhile, is still alive in their quest to reach the Big 12 championship game, but they'll need some help from other teams to get there.
This game is a must-win for both teams. And there's one stat that is already telling us which squad will walk away with the W, and it's this:
Completion percentage allowed by the opposing quarterback.
Yes, it's a defensive stat that's going to determine the winner in this one, and that gives BYU a significant advantage. BYU is ranked No. 12 in the country, allowing a stingy 56.3% completion percentage from opposing quarterbacks. Cincinnati, meanwhile, ranks No. 119, allowing a generous 66.4% completion rate by the opposing QB.
Why BYU's pass completion percentage allowed matters so much
Cincinnati has dropped three games this year. Here's the completion percentage allowed and the national rank by team they have lost to:
Nebraska - 56.5%, ranked No. 17. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby went 13-of-25 (52%) for just 69 passing yards with an interception. You read that right -- 69 yards on 25 pass attempts.
Utah - 49.8%, ranked No. 2. Sorsby completed 11-of-33 (33%) for 221 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
Arizona - 52.2%, ranked No. 5. Sorsby went 15-of-28 (54%) for 154 yards and was intercepted twice.
That's right. The statistic shared by the three teams that have defeated Cincinnati this year is they are all ranked in the Top 20 in the country in opposing passing percentage allowed. These three teams are elite in forcing low percentage passes from the other teams' quarterbacks. In those three losses Cincinnati averaged just 18.3 points per game while Brendan Sorsby went a combined 39-of-86, completing just 45% of his passes, and throwing one touchdown to four interceptions.
BYU is right up there with Utah, Arizona, and Nebraska as one of the nation's elite defenses in forcing opposing quarterbacks into a bad day at the office. Jay Hill's defense ranks No. 12 nationally allowing a mere 56.3% completion percentage.
BYU's elite pass defense is going to be key in a Cougars victory.
Cincinnati's generous pass percentage allowed
Now, looking at completion percentage from the other side of the coin, Cincinnati's defense ranks No. 119 of 136 schools by allowing a 66.4% completion percentage. While BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a true freshman, he's also incredibly smart and poised in making the right reads before throwing an accurate ball.
BYU beat West Virginia earlier this year and the Mountaineers currently rank No. 94 in pass percentage allowed, which is better than Cincy's No. 119 rank. Bachmeier went 18-of-25 (72%) for 351 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in leading BYU to a 14-point win.
Iowa State ranks No. 56 in completion percentage allowed and Bear diced them up to the tune of 22-of-35 (63%) for 307 yards and two scores in another 14-point BYU win.
Last week against TCU, whose defense ranks a respectable 67th in pass percentage allowed, Bachmeier was a maestro with a line of 23-of-33 (70%) for 296 yards and a touchdown. BYU won by 31.
Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick should be salivating over the myriad ways he should be able to get his freshman quarterback going against a generous Cincinnati secondary.
Look for Bear Bachmeier to have one of his best passing days of the season while BYU's secondary holds Cincinnati's passing attack in check. All signs point to BYU leaving Ohio with yet another impressive win, boosting their record to 10-1.
Final score: BYU 38, Cincinnati 17