Calling No. 10 BYU's home game against Baylor a "must win" isn't an understatement.
The Cougars still have multiple paths available to reach the College Football Playoffs, but in order for those routes to open up they need to win all three of their remaining games. And that starts with a frisky Baylor Bears team that's tied with BYU at 4-2 in Big 12 conference play and still harbors their own aspirations of reaching the conference championship game.
In a BYU season filled with the highest highs (Notre Dame) and the lowest lows (sloppy play leading to the Cougs snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at both Utah and UCF), it's still hard to know just exactly who this 7-2 team is.
Are the Cougars a "great" team worthy of their No. 10 CFP ranking?
Or is this a "good" team whose inconsistency and lack of a killer instinct will doom them to the great BYU dust bin of "what if?" squads?
Were going to find out everything we need to know about the Cougars against Baylor
Despite their lofty Top 10 CFP ranking, we still haven't seen a full, 60-minute "clean" game from the 2026 BYU Cougars.
The biggest culprits of holding the Cougars back at any given time have been sloppy tackling, killer mistakes on punt returns, losing the turnover battle, self-destructive penalties, offensive play calling that, somehow, at times is far too aggressive (recklessly going for it on fourth down) and far too conservative (forcing the run when it just isn't there).
The Cougars can get leads, but they struggle to put teams away. They figure out ways to win, but they still haven't figured out a killer instinct. Over the last three weeks since the epic Notre Dame win the Cougars are playing some of their most inconsistent football at the point in the season when they should be peaking.
Baylor, on the other hand, is peaking.
Two weeks ago they annihilated UCF 41-9...IN ORLANDO!
Last week was another double digit win at home against Iowa State, 42-31.
Baylor's offense has generated 83 points over the last two weeks while BYU's offense has yet to exceed 28 points in regulation against Power Four opponents this year. Kalani Sitake's team only has three more games to prove to the college football world that they truly belong among the great teams in college football, and they're going to need to show they can do more than just win ugly when it matters most.
Predictions for the Baylor game
I would love to say the Cougars are magically going to figure everything out in their 10th game of the season as they face the Baylor Bears. After all, their season is literally on the line. This game is the Cougars' playoffs because a loss ensures they won't get an at-large bid to the CFP, nor should they with a third loss, and the path to the Big 12 championship game becomes nearly mathematically impossible.
With all of those stakes coming to bear in this game, I'd love to predict the Cougars are going to show us they are a "great" team, not just a "good" one.
I would love to predict the running game suddenly explodes with a somewhat healthy LJ Martin.
I would love to predict the Aaron Roderick and Bear Bachmeier-led offense suddenly drops a 40-point outing.
I would love to predict a clean four-quarter performance void of self-destructive penalties.
I would love to predict BYU defenders go back to fundamental tackling and wrap up Baylor's ballcarriers.
I would love to predict no self-inflicted special teams woes.
I would love to predict that this is the week the 2026 BYU Cougars show us they are a great team, not just a gritty, good one.
But after nine games, I don't see what changes to make that happen.
My prediction for this game is another sloppy, frustrating, close win at home for the Cougars. They will get to 8-2 -- WHICH IS AWESOME AND INCREDIBLE -- but they won't earn the "style points" the CFP selection committee is looking for from a fringe playoff participant like the Cougars.
Against Baylor the successful but inconsistent 2026 BYU Cougars are going to show us who they really are: A very good yet inconsistent team that figures out how to win home games that are much closer than they should be.
Final Score: BYU 27, Baylor 24
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