As somebody who cares too much about BYU sports, as I consider the stakes of this year's Holy War between No. 9 BYU and No. 3 Utah, I'm afraid for my health. I might need to consult with a physician before partaking of this year's Holy War, and I know I'm not alone. A palpable nervous energy can be felt among both fan bases from Provo up 1-15 to Salt Lake City, and deservedly so.
Saturday's game between BYU and Utah is, in my opinion, the most consequential matchup in this storied history of this bitter rivalry.
Provided both teams win their three remaining games following the Holy War, the winner of Saturday's matchup is likely in the College Football Playoffs even without winning the conference championship game.
The loser, unfortunately, will be swimming upstream against the powerful current of a corrupt CFP selection committee that is so nakedly biased toward the SEC and against the Big 12 that they will likely fall just outside the Top 11 and be excluded from the playoffs.
A BYU win would give them four straight against Utah and secure their "big brother" status in the in-state rivalry now that the two programs are on equal conference footing. A Utah win signals momentum shift toward Salt Lake City under the new Morgan Scalley regime.
The stakes couldn't be higher.
Here's how the game is going to play out:
BYU will win if...
Kalani Sitake will pull off another massive victory against the Utes if his team can do three things:
1. Establish the run with running backs, not just Bear Bachmeier
2. Tackle well, including containing Devon Dampier when he scrambles
3. Avoid disastrous punt return issues
BYU's last two performances include a double-overtime loss at UCF and an uninspiring, even frustrating, seven-point win versus Arizona State. The three themes listed above -- a weak running game, poor tackling, and punt return issues -- were areas where the Cougars shot themselves in both feet, then through a hand for good measure. The coaching staff has a lot of work to do this week to address those glaring problems.
What's most concerning to BYU fans is that after a huge win against Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Cougars have played some of their worst football over the last two weeks. This sort of midseason letdown shouldn't happen to a Top 10 team eight games into the season. Rather than hitting their stride as a well-oiled machine, the Cougars seem to be regressing.
But even if BYU is excellent on Saturday in all three of the areas listed above, there's something intangible missing from the 2026 BYU Cougars:
Killer instinct.
This year's team tends to rise and fall to the level of its opponent. This team often plays with its food rather than mercilessly devouring it. While the Cougars have the win-loss record of a Top 10 team, they don't always play like one. In my opinion, they have yet to put together a "clean" game where the team fires on all cylinders from the opening kickoff until the final whistle.
Ideally, Top 10 teams have found their killer instinct before the ninth game of the season. In order for BYU to knock off Utah, they're going to need to go for the jugular early and, for once this year, not let go of their death grip.
Utah will win if...
The 8-0 Utah Utes have been a juggernaut in Morgan Scalley's first season.
With the exception of a sloppy three-point win at Colorado three weeks ago, the Utes have been annihilating their opponents every week. They obliterated SEC member Arkansas by 33, then shut out Utah State 33-0 the following week. The Utes then cruised to two-touchdown-plus wins over Iowa State and Kansas before their hiccup at Colorado.
After beating No. 14 Houston two weeks ago, last week Utah led Cincinnati 42-6 at halftime.
This year's Utah team is a cold, heartless machine, chewing up their opponents without giving a second thought as to what other people will think about them after administering these savage beatdowns.
Utah will win this game if their killer instinct is greater than BYU's, and that should cause concern in Provo.
Predicting the outcome
Frankly, I have no idea what to expect on a weekly basis from the 2026 BYU Cougars.
I predicted a loss against Notre Dame. Wrong.
I then predicted an impressive 13-point win at UCF. Wrong.
Last week I predicted an "angry and agitated" BYU squad would take out their frustrations on Arizona State with a convincing 38-16 manhandling of the Sun Devils. Wrong again!
Both BYU and Utah are outstanding teams with great coaching and talented players. They are on equal footing in those respects. They both deserve their Top 10 rankings. The difference in this game will come down to the intangibles like momentum and killer instinct.
BYU's momentum has stalled recently with two subpar performances where fundamentals like running the ball, consistent tackling, and clean punt returns have become major self-inflicted obstacles. BYU has very little momentum right now and any more headwinds will stop them in their path, if not push them backward.
When it comes to killer instinct, Utah has the clear edge. That goes double when playing at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
I've been consistently wrong in recent weeks predicting the outcome of BYU games, and I desperately hope I'm wrong again.
Final Score: Utah 31, BYU 16
Add us as a preferred source on Google