With the release of the first preseason poll, college football fans (and especially BYU Cougars fans) are already salivating at the prospects of the upcoming season. The anticipation for the 2025 football calendar is reaching its peak, as ticket sales empty the stadium, Kalani Sitake-themed calendars are flying off the shelves, and X has become a vicious battleground for hot takes and virtual defensiveness.
Just another day in the football world, am I right?
But with the onset of the preseason rankings, in which the BYU Cougars have been deemed worthy of the 23rd position, an overarching narrative is beginning to take root in its foundation. That narrative? Preseason rankings don't mean a thing, and we should all just ignore them.
A seasoned opinion, of course, as announcing the 25 best football teams in the nation is a bold claim before a single snap has been played. And last year, we witnessed pure insanity from end to end all year. For example, Arizona State and BYU, last year's projected Big 12 bottom-feeders, are now the top representatives for the power conference after dominating their league play slates in 2024.
The Florida State Seminoles, a team ranked top 10 to open the year last time around, turned out to be the absolute worst squad in the ACC. Yes, after losing their mojo in a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, the team would stumble, sputter, and splat all the way to a 2-10 record with wins coming only against Cal and FCS Charleston Southern. So much for top 10.
So that's it, right? Preseason rankings are worthless and deserve to carry no weight in our minds, yes?
Well, in many instances, yes. But in some ways, this can be a valuable window into the future of the season. Here are some quick numbers for you.
Year-over-year college football preseason ranking accuracy
National Champions preseason rankings by year:*
Year | Champion | Preseason Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2024 | Ohio State | 2 |
2023 | Michigan | 2 |
2022 | Georgia | 3 |
2021 | Georgia | 5 |
2020 | Alabama | 3 |
2019 | LSU | 6 |
2018 | Clemson | 2 |
2017 | Alabama | 1 |
2016 | Clemson | 2 |
2015 | Alabama | 3 |
National Runner-up preseason rankings by year:*
Year | Runner-Up | Preseason Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2024 | Notre Dame | 7 |
2023 | Washington | 10 |
2022 | TCU | Unranked |
2021 | Alabama | 1 |
2020 | Ohio State | 2 |
2019 | Clemson | 1 |
2018 | Alabama | 1 |
2017 | Georgia | 15 |
2016 | Alabama | 1 |
2015 | Clemson | 12 |
BYU football final rankings compared to preseason rankings:*
Year | Preseason Ranking | Final Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2024 | Unranked | 13 |
2023 | Unranked | Unranked |
2022 | 25 | Unranked |
2021 | Unranked | 19 |
2020 | Unranked | 16 |
2019 | Unranked | Unranked |
2018 | Unranked | Unranked |
2017 | Unranked | Unranked |
2016 | Unranked | Unranked |
2015 | Unranked | Unranked |
* Data gathered from the AP Poll.
Taking a glimpse a the past 10 years, some clear patterns appear. Notably, for the eventual champions, the last 10 champions all began the season ranked in the top 6, with 8 of the 10 beginning in the top 3. These numbers have been taken from the AP poll, but if the recent Coaches' Poll is an indication of the AP Poll, our champion is likely one of: Texas, Ohio State, or Penn State, with a roughly 1-in-5 chance that one of Georgia, Notre Dame, or Clemson crashes the party.
An interesting wrinkle to this, however, is that the preseason number one has only been crowned champion once in the past 10 seasons. In fact, the number one has missed out on the championship game entirely in 5 of the last 10 years. Not a great percentage for the preseason favorites.
Runners-up have been a different story, however, as 4 of the previous 10 began the year ranked 10th or lower, with Washington, TCU, Georgia, and Clemson each breaking convention and entering the championship game from outside the preseason circle. While these teams frequently interrupt the flow, they have failed to take home the trophy in each of the past 10 years. Meaning anyone outside of the top 6 shouldn't get their hopes up for a championship season.
And finally, BYU. For a team consistently on the outside looking in, the poll has been accurate in doubting the Cougars in 6 of the past 10 seasons, where they started and finished the year outside of the top 25. In 4 of the last 5, however, the rankings have been wrong about the Cougars, starting or finishing the season in the AP Poll in direct opposition to the other end of the year.
For 3 of the last 5 seasons, BYU football has finished in the top 25 despite starting the year unranked.
So are preseason polls worthless?
For most of the top 25, the rankings will shift and flow through the year. Some teams will surprise, some teams will disappoint, and some teams will live up to their preseason expectations exactly. Football is an unpredictable sport, but that doesn't mean it's entirely random. If a team begins the year with high expectations, they typically finish the year as a contender.
But every year is a new chance for any team, any roster, to crash the party and invite themselves to the doorstep of the expanded College Football Playoff. Get in, and who knows what could happen?