This weekend's matchup is a "must-win" game for both BYU (9-1) and Cincinnati (7-3) if they want to win the Big 12 conference championship and appear in the College Football Playoffs. The national media understands the consequences of this matchup, as Fox's Big Noon Kickoff will be in Cincinnati to see how things go down.
Cincinnati's path to the Big 12 title game
Cincinnati suffered a devastating loss last week. The Bearcats were ranked No. 25 and were still near the top of the Big 12 standings with a 5-1 conference record. They hosted a very good Arizona Wildcats squad last week, and the Bearcats lost 30-24 on their own turf. Their defeat last week makes their path to the Big 12 championship game very difficult, but they're not dead yet.
In order to make the Big 12 championship game, Cincinnati needs to win their two remaining games against BYU and TCU. If Cincy beats BYU this weekend, they would need help from other teams with losses from the likes of Utah, Arizona State, and Houston. The Bearcats don't control their own destiny, but they still have a fighting chance to play of a conference title. They'll be playing with their season on the line this week.
BYU's path to the Big 12 title game
The Cougars path to the Big 12 championship game is much more straightforward:
Win and you're in.
With a 6-1 conference record and their only loss coming against conference frontrunner Texas Tech, all BYU needs to do is beat Cincinnati and close out UCF to reach the Big 12 title game.
In addition to playing for the right to compete for a conference championship, BYU is also fighting for a spot for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoffs should they lose in the Big 12 title game. The Cougars are currently the No. 11 team in the CFP standings and likely need to rise two spots to be in line for an at-large bid as the ACC winner and a G5 member are ranked below BYU, but will get automatic playoff berths.
If BYU beats Cincy and UCF, then loses to a top 5 Texas Tech squad in the Big 12 title game, they could still very well receive an invitation to the College Football Playoffs.
The stakes couldn't be any higher for the Cougars this weekend. They not only need to beat Cincinnati, they need to blow them out. BYU needs to do everything in its power to bolster its resume in the eyes of a very skeptical CFP selection committee, and that includes a double-digit win against a good Cincy team that just fell out of the Top 25.
But the Bearcats will be equally desperate to keep their season's dreams alive. Both teams have their seasons on the line this weekend, and this game should be a good one.