I'm labeling BYU's game against UCF a "must-win", and in doing so, I can't help but think back to comedian Brian Regan's hilarious take on "must-win" games that don't quite live up to the literal, technical definition:
So why should we elevate the importance in BYU's game against UCF, even though it's just one of 18 conference games the Cougars will play this year? The answer is simple:
BYU fans want to believe this team can make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
Coming off the team's biggest win of the season against No. 6 Iowa State, the Cougars can't afford to let all of that massive momentum and hope vanish with a home loss to UCF.
Many BYU fans were already skeptical about the ceiling for this team, even with a healthy Richie Saunders, who was recently lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Cougars offense was usually outstanding before Saunders went down, but lapses in defensive rotations, surrendering a plethora of uncontested 3-pointers, and inconsistent rebounding seemed destined to cap the upside of Kevin Young's squad.
BYU didn't have a signature win on the season until their last game against Iowa State. The UCF game feels like a "must-win" in order to build on that momentum and reassure Cougar fans that this team is good enough and can be consistent enough to beat any team on any night, even without Richie. The Cougars will have their hands full with UCF, and a victory over the Knights will be a better win than most people recognize.
UCF's season recap
UCF has a solid 19-7 record on the season.
They began the season feasting mostly on cupcakes in nonconference play, going 11-1. They faced just three Power Five teams and pulled off victories over Texas A&M and Pitt while losing to Vanderbilt.
The Knights began Big 12 play with an impressive win against Kansas. UCF sports an 8-6 conference record, which is identical to BYU's. In addition to the Knights notable win against Kansas, they also knocked off Texas Tech by 13 in Lubbock. UCF can beat any team on any given day.
UCF's Kenpom rating is No. 49 compared to BYU's No. 21 rating.
The Knights rank No. 35 nationally in offensive rating but just 113th in defensive rating. UCF's Achilles' heel is its defense, and that's something BYU should be able to exploit with their No. 8-ranked offense.
UCF's offense is led by four players averaging double figures with guards Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks averaging 14.0 points per game, forward Jordan Burks at 13.0 PPG, and forward Jamichael Stillwell at 11.9 PPG. Kugel suffered an injury on February 17th against TCU and didn't suit up for UCF's two-point win at Utah on Saturday, so his status is worth monitoring.
UCF's defense is suspect, and this could be the game where BYU's Kennard Davis and Mihailo Boskovic build on the much-needed offensive momentum they found against Iowa State. And who knows, maybe this is the game when freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa scores 50.
A BYU win against UCF could be significant in the end-of-season Big 12 standings, but more than that it can validate the Cougars as legitimate contenders, even after losing Richie Saunders.
While in the big scheme of things this isn't truly a must win game for the Cougars -- hat tip to Brian Regan -- it sure feels like one.