Losing against Utah really hurts. Losing the biggest Holy War in history will leave a scar. Losing a highly winnable game with your College Football Playoff hopes on the line could haunt Kalani Sitake's program for years. After going down 14-0 quickly, BYU responded with a 20-0 run of their own before throwing four interceptions and failing to score even once in the second half in Salt Lake City.
BYU's second loss of the year will certainly drop them out of the immediate CFP picture, but that doesn't mean their hopes of an appearance are dead. In fact, a 10-2 season may just make the Cougars a lock for the 12-team bracket as an at-large.
If ESPN's playoff predictor is to be believed, of course.
ESPN’s Playoff predictor, which was updated today, has BYU with a 98% chance to make the payoff… IF we win out, AND we miss the BIGXII CCG. 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/aM0j8f5lXZ
— Terrell Williams (@XRPBYU) November 8, 2026
It helps a ton that Notre Dame, BYU's marquee win, just toppled the top-ranked and previously undefeated Miami Hurricanes in South Bend on Saturday. Suddenly, the Cougars have what is likely a top-five quality win on their resume, and their most recent loss came on the road in a rivalry game against a Utah team that will almost certainly be ranked second in this week's CFP rankings.
Now, if BYU can win out and not appear in the Big 12 championship game, their hopes of an at-large bid aren't just strong; they're favorable. A 98% chance of appearing in the playoffs and a 70% chance of hosting their first-round matchup as the higher seed is unthinkable for a 2-loss BYU team.
How unexpected is that?
BYU football can save their season with a win against Baylor
BYU's upcoming opponent, Baylor, has been much better than advertised. That could either be good or bad news, depending on perspective. Despite firing longtim head coach Dave Aranda in recent weeks, the Bears are currently 6-3 and coming off a strong 42-31 win over Iowa State in Waco. Suddenly, another quality opponent will stand opposite BYU in LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Good news: BYU will play at home against a quality foe. That's great for strength of schedule and even better for the Cougars' CFP resume if they win.
Bad news: BYU hasn't put together a complete game since taking down Notre Dame, and now they face a Baylor team capable of putting up points in a hurry. No matter what happens, BYU cannot afford another loss in the regular season. Baylor is the biggest remaining threat on the schedule.
So which version of BYU football will we see this weekend? Assuming LJ Martin remains available and returns to somewhat normal condition after some off-and-on reps against Utah, we may see BYU near full-strength for the first time in a very long time. This is a team that hasn't fared well in November over the past two seasons, however, so playing their sharpest football of the year would be a strong indicator for the remaining games on the slate.
How to watch BYU Football vs. Baylor: game information
Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
Time: 1:30 PM MT
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Channel: FOX
Odds: BYU -7.5
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