After a successful start to the Big 12 season with a road win at Kansas State, BYU hosts Arizona State Wednesday night at the Marriott Center, looking to boost its conference record to 2-0.
Arizona State lost its conference opener last week on the road at Colorado. The Sun Devils and the Buffaloes both rank near the bottom of the Big 12 with only Utah ranked below them, so a loss at Colorado is pretty telling about where Arizona State is at the moment.
The Sun Devils boast a "Big Three" of guard Maurice Odum (16.6 PPG), guard Anthony Johnson (14.1 PPG), and center Massamba Diop (13.6 PPG). Odum isn't just a solid scorer, he's the straw that stirs Arizona State's offense as he also averages 6.6 assists per game. He's dynamic, and Robert Wright III will have his hands full.
While Arizona State has a solid Big Three, BYU may have the best trio of players in the country between AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and Robert Wright III.
Plain and simple: BYU's Big Three is better than Arizona State's.
Rebounding is the key to victory
This year's iteration of Kevin Young's team is known for starting slowly, and one of the reasons why is the number of offensive rebounds they allow opposing teams to corral. BYU's opponents have generated extra possessions, which have led to extra points and often early deficits for BYU. In order for the Cougars to get quickly out of the blocks, they're going to need to better control the glass than they have done at times this year.
That's where there's some good news for BYU; Arizona State isn't known as a strong rebounding team.
ASU's leading rebounder this year is forward Santiago Trouet, who tallies just 5.5 rebounds per game. The Sun Devils don't have the type of big, beefy center who inhales offensive rebounds and has traditionally caused BYU fits. With BYU's Keba Keita coming off a 16-rebound performance against Kansas State and new arrival Abdullah Ahmed looking effective as a rebounder, BYU could control the glass in this one.
There's an advanced metric called Offensive Rebounding Percentage that estimates the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team secured. Arizona State is currently ranked No. 289 of 365 schools in Offensive Rebounding Percentage, so BYU should be able to limit them to one possession more often than not.
If BYU can limit Arizona State's offensive rebounding -- which they should -- the Cougars could very well race out to a fast start at home and never look back. That's exactly what I'm predicting will happen in this one.
Prediction: BYU 89, Arizona State 71