Every well-run household has a budget. There is only a certain amount of income to cover all of life’s expenses, and most families need to be disciplined and planful just to get by. Spend too much money on luxury cars, for example, and it makes it tough to buy groceries.
NFL front offices are in the same boat when allocating resources to construct a competitive roster.
Through seven games this season, the Atlanta Falcons are mismanaging their running back budget.
Atlanta's decision to draft Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall in 2023 when Tyler Allgeier was coming off a 1,000-plus yard 2022 rookie campaign continues to be a head-scratching curiosity. As Robinson gets heavy doses of carries on a weekly basis, the often dominating Tyler Allgeier has inexplicably become an afterthought for the 4-3 Atlanta Falcons.
The Decision to Draft Bijan Robinson
Tyler Allgeier, the former BYU star, was drafted by the Falcons in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Despite his less-than-stellar draft pedigree, the bruising running back went on to rush for 1,035 yards as a rookie while averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. In the process he broke Atlanta’s 43-year rookie rushing record and finished fifth in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Fans of both BYU and the Atlanta Falcons assumed Allgeier would become a perennial 1,000-plus yard rusher with multiple Pro Bowl honors to come. Going into the 2023 draft the Falcons were seemingly set at running back and could use their prime draft picks to bolster more pressing positions like cornerback, defensive end, or offensive guard. But when the Falcons were on the clock in the first round general manager Terry Fontenot bucked the prevailing wisdom and did the almost unthinkable:
He drafted running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick.
In today’s NFL, running back is seen as perhaps the most easily replaceable offensive position, so Atlanta’s draft strategy raised more than a few eyebrows across the league. Robinson was the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018. Bijan was given a fully-guaranteed 4-year, $22 million contract. His guaranteed money is fifth highest in the NFL for his position behind Pro Bowlers Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey.
To compare the NFL to an American household, many families today need two vehicles to get around - one primary vehicle that can be kind of sexy and fun to drive, and a second car that’s practical and affordable for running errands and hauling junk. The same holds true for NFL teams with their running backs. NFL teams generally get by with a solid bell cow running back and a serviceable backup.
Going into the 2023 draft the Falcons already had a brand new BMW in Tyler Allgeier. He was sexy, fun, powerful, and under warranty (meaning he was playing on a cheap 4-year, $4 million rookie contract). With the BMW in the driveway (Allgeier), all the Falcons needed was a five-year-old Honda Accord as their second vehicle (a productive, affordable veteran). Instead, they decided to double down and buy a brand new Porsche in Bijan Robinson.
While the Falcons garage was now the envy of the neighborhood with a new Porsche and a BMW, such luxuries aren't very practical. They give you too much of a good thing.
Production and Workload
Through seven games this year, Tyler Allgeier is objectively outperforming Bijan Robinson in the running game.
And don’t misunderstand - Bijan Robinson is a very good NFL running back. This isn’t a Bijan hit piece. In fact, I like Bijan Robinson as a player. He’s fast, strong, and silky smooth. He possesses the traits of a future Pro Bowler. But as good as Robinson has been this year, Allgeier has been even better. Despite this fact, the workload between the two backs doesn’t seem to be based on this year’s production:
Why isn't #TylerAllgeier getting more touches for the #AtlantaFalcons?
— Diggin’ Brigham (@DigginBrigham) October 22, 2024
He only has one game with double-digit carries despite his 5.7 YPC ranking 5th in the NFL. He has been outperforming #BijanRobinson this year. #BYUfootball pic.twitter.com/YovE4R9P0u
On the season, Allgeier’s 5.7 yards per carry is a full yard higher than Robinson’s 4.7. Allgeier’s average of 2.8 average yards after contact is nearly a full yard better than Robinson’s 1.9.
Furthermore, Allgeier’s 5.7 yards per carry ranks fifth in the NFL among running backs with at least 50 carries, trailing only Tank Bigsby (6.2), Saquon Barkley (6.1), Derrick Henry (5.9), and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.7).
Despite putting up some of the best per-carry rushing statistics in the league, Tyler Allgeier has only exceeded nine carries in a game once this year, and that came in a blowout win over the hapless Carolina Panthers.
When factoring out Allgeier’s 18 carries against the Panthers, he has averaged just 6.3 rushes per game. Robinson, on the other hand, is averaging nearly 15 carries per outing.
That, my friends, is a textbook case of football mismanagement.
Why Is Tyler Allgeier Being So Underutilized?
One of the main reasons Bijan Robinson is receiving the lion’s share of the carries this year despite being outperformed by Tyler Allgeier likely has to do with the front office’s need to justify buying their shiny, expensive Porsche.
General manager Terry Fontenot invested a massively valuable No. 8 overall pick and committed a guaranteed $22 million to Bijan Robinson, who, again, plays one of the most replaceable positions in football. The disparate workload between Allgeier and Robinson this year may come down to where each player was drafted. Robinson seems to be benefitting from the “halo effect” that most first round picks enjoy in order for the front office to justify their selection.
In an alternate universe, let’s say the Falcons didn’t draft Bijan Robinson in the first round in 2023 but instead drafted a running back named “Robin Bijanson” from New Mexico State in the seventh round.
If “Robin Bijanson” - the seventh rounder from New Mexico State - was getting force fed the ball this year despite averaging a full yard per carry less than Tyler Allgeier, most Falcon fans would be throwing remote controls at their TV and hollering for Allgeier to get the stinkin’ ball! Remember, just two years ago the guy rushed for over 1,000 yards as a rookie and this year is a Top 5 back in terms of yards per carry.
But because Bijan Robinson was the No. 8 overall pick last year, he’s going to get a longer leash from the coaching staff and more grace from Falcons fans than an equivalent player who was a late-round pick.
Again, this isn’t a Bijan Robinson hit piece. He’s a fantastic player with Pro Bowl potential.
The point of all of this is to highlight the fact that as good as Bijan Robinson has been this year, Tyler Allgeier has been better when running the football. Despite this uncomfortable reality for the Falcons front office, Allgeier is only getting about six carries per game in games that have mattered.
Tyler Allgeier also has Pro Bowl potential.
The Atlanta Falcons are inexplicably using him like an afterthought.
When a household already has a brand new BMW, going out and buying a new Porsche is rarely the wisest course of action.
