No. 6 seed BYU will face No. 11 seed Texas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. BYU fans were given the gift of being able to do some advanced scouting of the Longhorns, who had to defeat NC State in a First Four play-in game to earn the right to face the Cougars. Texas beat NC State in a thrilling game on a virtual buzzer-beater. Three observations about the way the Longhorns played in that game should give BYU fans optimism about the Cougars chances to pull out a win.
Observation No. 1 - Texas was clanging their 3-point shots
BYU fans know that one of the Cougars weaknesses this year has been defending the 3-point line. BYU's opponents have had far too many wide-open looks from deep this year and have nailed those shots at a very high clip. Even below average 3-point shooting teams have looked like the peak Golden State Warriors at times against the Cougars defene.
In watching Texas clang their way to a 5-of-17 (29%) shooting night from the 3-point line against NC State, perhaps BYU can contain the Longhorns from deep. That overall shooting performance is even more glaring when considering Texas went 3-for-3 from the 3-point line to start the game, then made just 2-of-14 the rest of the way.
On the season Texas shot a respectable 35.3% from the 3-point line, but their performance against the Wolfpack revealed they can get ice cold at times. If BYU can force the Longhorns into a second consecutive cold shooting night from beyond the arc, the Cougars could cruise to a victory.
Observation No. 2 - Texas forced just seven NC State turnovers
While Texas has a solid offense, their defense can be suspect at times. Per Kenpom, the Longhorns defensive rating of 105 (the number of points allowed per 100 possessions) ranks just 95th in the country.
Texas forced just seven turnovers against NC State, and the Wolfpack was able to get into their offensive sets with little resistance. Now, NC State shot just 39% from the field on 23-of-59 shooting, so the Longhorns defense did step up in that regard.
If BYU can mimic NC State and turn the ball over just seven times against a pretty lax Texas defense, the Cougars dynamic offense led by scoring champ AJ Dybantsa could put up some serious points.
Observation No. 3 - The Longhorns stumbled down the stretch
With 1:53 left in the game, Texas led 62-53. ESPN gave them a 96% chance of winning the game at that point. The game felt over at that point, barring a Texas collapse.
And collapse, they did.
Texas then committed a foul on a layup for an and-1. After making two free throws the Longhorns gave up a quick 3-pointer. Their nine-point lead was quickly trimmed to five points with 1:30 remaining. Texas called a timeout to regroup, only to turn the ball over. NC State then hit another three to cut the deficit to 64-62 with 1:06 left to play.
Texas's nine-point lead was trimmed to two in less than 50 seconds. NC State would tie the game with 18 seconds left (after another Texas turnover coming out of a timeout) only for the Longhorns to win on a tough jumper with one second left.
The lights shine really, really bright on the big stage of the NCAA Tournament. Texas showed the lights were a little too bright when it mattered most as they struggled to close out the game against NC State. If the game against BYU is close in the final minutes, look for the Cougars to pounce.