Welcome to Too Optimistic Tuesday!
This weekly column reminds BYU fans why they should count their many blessings and have an abundance of hope. Every season in every sport is full of both ups and downs. This column will amplify the "ups" and help fans quickly recover from the "downs". So put on your blue-tinted goggles and just enjoy your BYU fandom for a moment.
When on a level playing field, BYU football owns the state of Utah
No. 11 BYU (7-0) is coming off their third straight win against rival Utah. The Cougars now officially have a winning streak against the Utes and this latest victory underscores an important college football truth in the Beehive State:
When BYU and Utah compete on a level playing field, BYU football owns the state of Utah.
The modern era of BYU football began in 1972 when LaVell Edwards was hired as head coach. In the 27 seasons between 1972 and 1998, BYU and Utah were on a level playing field as members of the Western Athletic Conference. In those 27 years BYU either won or shared the WAC regular season championship 18 times. Utah won one WAC championship.
In 1999 both the Cougars and the Utes joined the Mountain West Conference. In the 12 years seasons between 1999 and 2010, both BYU and Utah claimed or shared four conference championships.
In summary, BYU and Utah were in the same conference from 1972 through 2010.
BYU won 22 conference championships.
Utah won four.
In head-to-head matchups between 1972 and 2010, BYU went 26-13 against their neighbors to the north. When playing on a level playing field in the WAC and the MWC, BYU owned football in the Beehive State. That's an objective fact.
Then, of course, everything changed in 2011 when Utah joined the Pac-12 and enjoyed conference prestige, money, and exposure that BYU couldn't match as a football independent. Cougar fans watched in frustration as Utah used that systematic advantage to lure top in-state recruits, elite LDS talents, and mine the Polynesian pipeline to simply build better football teams. The Utes went on a nine-game winning streak against the Cougars, won two Pac-12 championships, and were operating in a completely different football ecosystem than BYU.
But all of that changed in September 2021 when BYU was invited to join the Big 12.
The day after the Power Four invitation came to Provo, the Cougars beat the Utes in football. And since then all of the momentum in this rivalry has begun to flow BYU's way. The Cougars and the Utes are once again on a level playing field.
And once again, BYU owns football in the state of Utah.
The gulf between BYU and Utah is going to widen
And as we love to do here at Too Optimistic Tuesday, let's play things forward through the perspective of our admitted blue-tinted goggles.
With BYU and Utah now once again in the same conference, the gap between the Cougars and the Utes is only going to widen from here. We're heading toward a future that could be similar to the pre-Independence past when BYU dominated the in-state rivalry against the team up north.
The recent on-field results speak for themselves with BYU now having won three straight games in the Holy War rivalry.
BYU is going to enjoy a massive financial advantage over Utah going forward. Over the last two seasons the Cougars received a partial share Big 12 payout of approximately $19 million per year as a new member. That figure could increase to as much as $50 million in this 2025-26 academic year with BYU now being a full-share member. That's a windfall for the Cougars providing resources never seen before in Provo, just in time for revenue sharing with athletes. On the flip side, Utah will need to figure out how to carve out an additional $20 million per year in revenue sharing, which is a huge hole to fill for a program that has been fully spending for years now at a Power Four level.
Throw in NIL and a very motivated BYU donor base, and the Cougars are not only on a level playing field with the Utes financially, they're speeding past them.
With BYU now in a Power Four conference and with the resources that come with that, the Cougars are also starting to pull away from Utah on the recruiting trail. In the class of 2025, Utah's recruiting class was ranked 47th nationally to BYU's 59th-ranked class, so a slight edge to the Utes.
But in the class of 2026, BYU is ranked 23rd nationally to Utah's 44th-ranked class. In the class of 2026 BYU is also winning the biggest in-state recruiting battles with five of the 10 top recruits in Utah committed to BYU compared to just one committed to the Utes. BYU also landed heralded non-Utah talents like 5-star quarterback Ryder Lyons, the No. 22 prospect in the entire country.
BYU has always "done more with less". They're now going to be able to "do more with more" while Utah wrestles with how to excel in the brave new world of NIL, revenue sharing, and recruiting against a BYU program that has all of the same Power Four advantages enjoyed by the Utes.
The Kalani Sitake and Kyle Whittingham coaching dynamic
Additionally, BYU enjoys having coach Kalani Sitake at the peak of his powers guiding his dream school to national prominence. Players want to play for Kalani. They know he's not going anywhere.
Meanwhile, Utah has been fortunate to have one of the all-time great college coaches in Kyle Whittingham piloting their program for the past 21 years. He's a legend. Whittingham has built a powerhouse with the Utes since they joined the Pac-12.
But Whittingham is likely coming to the end of his coaching days. At 65 years old, more than a few college football pundits speculated he would have retired after last season had the Utes beaten the Cougars and played in a decent bowl game. Morgan Scalley has already been named Utah's "coach in waiting", and he might not be waiting long to take over the legend.
If this, in fact, is Kyle Whittingham's last season, the future then becomes even that much more uncertain in Salt Lake City. How many Utes will hit the transfer portal? How many of them will - gasp! - transfer to BYU? Just how good of a head coach will Scalley be? If the Utes go 7-5 for a couple of seasons under Scalley's leadership, how impatient will the fan base become? Will donors open their checkbooks? Will top non-LDS talent that might have traditionally committed to a Kyle Willingham-led team instead end up at Texas Tech, Arizona State, or TCU?
BYU fans know what it's like to lose a coaching legend, and it's not easy.
After LaVell Edwards retired following the 2000 season, new head coach Gary Crowton had a great first year with LaVell's returning roster, but over the next three seasons the Cougars went 14-21 before replacing Crowton with Bronco Mendenhall.
On the recruiting front, Utah simply can't afford a couple of stagnant seasons under a new head coach given the current rocket ship trajectory of BYU's football program.
Top in-state, LDS, and Polynesian recruits know that Kyle Whittingham is likely on the way out.
Top in-state, LDS, and Polynesian recruits also know that Kalani Sitake isn't going anywhere anytime soon and he's a joy to have as a head coach.
BYU is "cool" again, and so is the Honor Code
There's something else putting wind in BYU's sails that is going to help them distance themselves from Utah in coming years, and it's this:
BYU is cool again, and so is the Honor Code.
For lack of a better term, BYU is just "cool" right now. The football team is elite. The basketball team is elite. Both big-time sports are landing top athletes with national brands like the aforementioned Ryder Lyons and top basketball recruit AJ Dybantsa. BYU has become a destination for top athletes, and quirky Provo currently has a vibe that many young people enjoy.
And in one of the most refreshing realities for BYU fans, the Honor Code is cool, too. Many of today's top high school and college athletes are embracing their religious identities and are attracted to the culture created by the Honor Code. Be they Christian, Muslim, or Jewish, athletes who now routinely "give glory to God" in their postgame interviews are thriving in the spiritual, faith-centered, and focused culture of BYU. Now, people of any faith can find acceptance and fully live their faith at Utah as well, but Utah is the same as any other school in that respect. The Honor Code is a positive differentiator for many athletes, and it's helping BYU land top talents who don't want the distractions of traditional college life.
BYU and Utah are now back on a level playing field. History is starting to repeat itself that when the Cougars and the Utes are playing in the same system, BYU comes out far ahead. And the gulf between Provo and Salt Lake City is only going to widen in coming years.
I'm not just overly optimistic about that. I'm convinced of it.