The college football season has never, and will never, be a predictable affair. After the initial round of College Football Playoff rankings, two of the bracket-bound teams have already slipped and tumbled from this week's group of 12. Indiana finally looked mortal with a last-second touchdown to escape the broken-spirited Penn State Nittany Lions. On the other side, Texas Tech flexed its muscles alongside Alabama, and Ohio State, Georgia, and Ole Miss are holding the line.
So the question stands: with Memphis and BYU suffering the humiliation of defeat in their first week in the sun, who gets bumped in the order? Who's next in line, and who gets a vote of low confidence from the Playoff committee? In spite of all this, which teams are on the outside looking in, who's eliminated, and who stands poised to overcome their shortcomings and rejoin the party after they've sobered up? This point in the season has left us with a million questions to answer.
So, from my flawed and imperfect viewpoint (thank goodness we have an entire committee to unquestionably filter fact from fiction), how might I see the second edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings roll out? Who boasts a resume bold enough to breach the boundary, and who is quote-unquote in at this point in the season?
Here's how it might play out as the rankings are posted on Tuesday.
Week 12 College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
First is the question of the bracket. If these projections were true, what would the 12-team layout look like? Keep in mind, this season's bye week recipients will be determined by the committee's rankings, rather than conference champion standings. Bolded teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
1. Ohio State (Big 10 Champion)
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
4. Alabama
5. Texas Tech (+3) (Big 12 Champion)
6. Georgia (-1)
7. Ole Miss (-1)
8. Oregon (+1)
9. Notre Dame (+1)
10. Texas (+1)
11. BYU (-4)
12. Oklahoma
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt (+2)
15. Georgia Tech (+2) (ACC Champion)
16. USC (+3)
17. Miami (+1)
18. Virginia (-4)
19. Michigan (+2)
20. Louisville (-5)
21. Pittsburgh (+3)
22. Tennessee (+3)
23. Cincinnati (NR)
24. Iowa (-4)
25. James Madison (NR) (G5 Champion)
Notable details for the College Football Playoff
This is not a final projection, nor do I expect much of the field to look how it does now. BYU, for example, would miss out on the 12-team postseason despite being ranked 11th due to the apparent weakness of the ACC; their champion is ranked 15th overall as it stands. An additional wrinkle: it seems unlikely that the G5 champion will be ranked in the top 12 organically, so that shrinks the at-large window to the top 10.
Though Texas has finally breached the order once again, their brutal remaining schedule and struggles against weaker competition leave me confident that the Longhorns will either be a top-5 team or out of the top 20 by the end of their 12th game.