The second edition of the CFP rankings came out yesterday, and the overall vibes from the fans are a lot more positive, especially from BYU fans. BYU only dropped one spot after losing to Utah, which actually makes sense if you think about it. They only lost by 8 on the road against the number 3 team, and their win over Notre Dame became much stronger because they beat Miami. Plus, BYU was already too low to begin with.
It's time for round 2 of the blind resume tests. Just like last week, I'll give you three versions: the 5-team version, the 15-team version, and the 25-team version. This way, you can choose how much effort you want to put in. The 5-team version will involve BYU and four other teams of my choice, the 15-team version will be the top 15, and the 25-team version will be the top 25.
For each test, I will randomly assign each team a letter. I will not tell you who each team is, but I will give you their letter, their record, their SOS ranking based on my model and ESPN's FPI model (so you can choose which one you prefer), their average scoring margin (how many points they've won their games by on average), all the ranked teams they beat and lost to (I'll give you the letter for each team if they're included in the test or their CFP ranking if they're not), and the number of unranked wins. I'll let you rank each team by their letters, and then I'll provide a key at the end so you can see where you ranked everyone.
Here's the difference between my strength of schedule model and ESPN's FPI strength of schedule model: theirs is a lot more advanced, but it's also pretty biased towards the SEC and Big 10. My model makes no assumptions about which conferences are better than others. It's 50% based on your opponents' win percentage, 25% based on your opponents' opponents' win percentage, 12.5% based on your opponents' opoonents' opponents' win percentage, and so on. So if your conference has a high nonconference win rate, that helps you, but if your conference is just over-hyped, that doesn't help you.
Here are a few other things to keep in mind. One, lower numbers on SOS rankings are better because they're rankings. Two, you do not have to take all of the columns into account, For example, if you're like me, and you don't think style points should matter, feel free to ignore the average scoring margin column. I only included it out of respect for those who disagree with me on that. And three, if you do multiple tests, you might memorize certain details about some of the teams, so I recommend only doing one of them if you want to keep it bias-free.
By the way, I don't know why I didn't mention this last week, but something beautiful happened in round one. During the 25-team test, I ended up ranking teams B, Y, and U consecutively. That made me smile.
Without further ado, here are each of the tests:
5-team blind resume test:
Team | Record | Higinbotham SOS | FPI SOS | Average Scoring Margin | Ranked Wins | Ranked Losses | # of Unranked Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | 7-2 | 14 | 30 | +5.6 | CFP 5, 23 | CFP 2 | 1 |
B | 7-2 | 23 | 4 | +0.6 | CFP 17, 21 | Team D, CFP 3 | 0 |
C | 8-1 | 53 | 74 | +12.3 | CFP 14, 23 | None | 1 |
D | 7-2 | 43 | 23 | +13.6 | Team B, CFP 3 | CFP 6, 17 | 0 |
E | 8-1 | 44 | 42 | +15.6 | None | CFP 20 | 0 |
15-team blind resume test:
Team | Record | Higinbotham SOS | FPI SOS | Average Scoring Margin | Ranked Wins | Ranked Losses | # of Unranked Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | 8-1 | 102 | 60 | +21.3 | None | Team E | 0 |
B | 7-2 | 86 | 34 | +10.6 | None | CFP 20 | 1 |
C | 7-2 | 23 | 4 | +0.6 | CFP 17, 21 | Teams F and O | 0 |
D | 8-1 | 44 | 42 | +15.6 | None | CFP 20 | 0 |
E | 8-1 | 6 | 25 | +20.3 | Team A | Team M | 0 |
F | 7-2 | 10 | 1 | +17.1 | Team C, CFP 17, 21 | Teams L and O | 0 |
G | 9-0 | 103 | 66 | +19.4 | CFP 16 | None | 0 |
H | 7-2 | 4 | 38 | +7 | CFP 25 | Teams I and J | 0 |
I | 8-1 | 53 | 74 | +12.3 | Team H, CFP 23 | None | 1 |
J | 9-0 | 67 | 67 | +17.5 | Teams H and N | None | 0 |
K | 7-2 | 11 | 11 | +13.7 | Team O, CFP 19, 20, 22 | None | 2 |
L | 8-1 | 52 | 22 | +23 | Team F, CFP 19 | None | 1 |
M | 8-1 | 75 | 33 | +24.8 | Team E | Team N | 0 |
N | 7-2 | 14 | 30 | +5.6 | Team M, CFP 23 | Team J | 1 |
O | 7-2 | 43 | 23 | +13.6 | Teams C and F | Team K, CFP 17 | 0 |
25-team blind resume test:
Team | Record | Higinbotham SOS | FPI SOS | Average Scoring Margin | Ranked Wins | Ranked Losses | # of Unranked Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | 6-3 | 21 | 10 | +17.3 | Teams E and S | Teams M, O, and U | 0 |
B | 8-1 | 102 | 60 | +21.3 | None | Team D | 0 |
C | 7-2 | 43 | 23 | +13.6 | Teams G and V | Teams U and Y | 0 |
D | 8-1 | 6 | 25 | +20.3 | Team B | Team L | 0 |
E | 7-2 | 86 | 34 | +10.6 | None | Team A | 1 |
F | 8-1 | 64 | 79 | +13.8 | None | Team O | 0 |
G | 7-2 | 10 | 1 | +17.1 | Teams I, V, and Y | Teams C and T | 0 |
H | 8-1 | 53 | 74 | +12.3 | Teams J and R | None | 1 |
I | 6-3 | 13 | 19 | +15.8 | None | Teams G, N, and V | 0 |
J | 7-2 | 98 | 46 | +12.6 | None | Teams H and P | 0 |
K | 9-0 | 103 | 66 | +19.4 | Team O | None | 0 |
L | 8-1 | 75 | 33 | +24.8 | Team D | Team P | 0 |
M | 7-2 | 37 | 29 | +8.2 | Team A | Team O | 1 |
N | 6-3 | 31 | 2 | +7.8 | Teams I and X | Teams T and U | 1 |
O | 6-3 | 1 | 9 | +3 | Teams A, F, and M | Teams K and Q | 1 |
P | 7-2 | 14 | 30 | +5.6 | Teams J and L | Team W | 1 |
Q | 6-3 | 66 | 54 | +11.4 | Team O | Team R | 2 |
R | 7-2 | 4 | 38 | +7 | Team Q | Teams H and W | 0 |
S | 8-1 | 44 | 42 | +15.6 | None | Team A | 0 |
T | 8-1 | 52 | 22 | +23 | Teams N and G | None | 1 |
U | 7-2 | 11 | 11 | +13.7 | Teams A, N, C, and X | None | 2 |
V | 7-2 | 23 | 4 | +0.6 | Teams I and Y | Teams C and G | 0 |
W | 9-0 | 67 | 67 | +17.5 | Teams P and R | None | 0 |
X | 6-3 | 91 | 27 | +6.4 | Team C | Teams G, U, and V | 0 |
Y | 6-3 | 36 | 14 | +8.1 | Team C | Teams G and V | 1 |
Once you're ready, here are the keys for each test. Go ahead and see which team was which letter and where you ranked them. Make sure you check the correct key.
5-team test:
Letter | Team | Current CFP Ranking | My Blind Ranking (of these 5) |
|---|---|---|---|
A | BYU | 10 | 1 |
B | Kentucky | 11 | 4 |
C | Texas Tech | 12 | 2 |
D | Tennessee | 8 | 3 |
E | Indiana | 9 | 5 |
15-team test:
Letter | Team | Current CFP Ranking | My Blind Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
A | Wake Forest | 13 | 14 |
B | Iowa | 15 | 15 |
C | Kentucky | 11 | 12 |
D | Indiana | 9 | 4 |
E | Miami | 7 | 2 |
F | Alabama | 3 | 8 |
G | UCLA | 4 | 3 |
H | Houston | 14 | 9 |
I | Texas Tech | 12 | 6 |
J | Utah | 2 | 1 |
K | Texas | 6 | 7 |
L | Georgia | 1 | 5 |
M | Notre Dame | 5 | 13 |
N | BYU | 10 | 10 |
O | Tennessee | 8 | 11 |
25-team test:
Letter | Team | Current CFP Ranking | My Blind Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
A | Ohio St | 20 | 17 |
B | Wake Forest | 13 | 18 |
C | Tennessee | 8 | 15 |
D | Miami | 7 | 2 |
E | Iowa | 15 | 22 |
F | Boise St | 24 | 14 |
G | Alabama | 3 | 7 |
H | Texas Tech | 12 | 4 |
I | LSU | 21 | 20 |
J | Arizona | 23 | 23 |
K | UCLA | 4 | 3 |
L | Notre Dame | 5 | 13 |
M | USC | 18 | 16 |
N | Ole Miss | 19 | 19 |
O | Oregon | 16 | 12 |
P | BYU | 10 | 9 |
Q | Oklahoma St | 25 | 24 |
R | Houston | 14 | 6 |
S | Indiana | 9 | 11 |
T | Georgia | 1 | 5 |
U | Texas | 6 | 8 |
V | Kentucky | 11 | 10 |
W | Utah | 2 | 1 |
X | Missouri | 22 | 25 |
Y | South Carolina | 17 | 21 |
If you looked at my rankings, you may notice some inconstincies. One I want to point out was what I did with Indiana. In the 5-team test, I ranked them the lowest out of the five teams, mostly because they have no ranked wins. But then, in the 15-team test, I ranked them number 4, which was higher than all the other teams in the 5-team test. This was because of the tier system I used on the 15-team test. I didn't account for the number of ranked teams until I separated each team into their tiers.
Tier 1 was undefeated teams and one-loss teams with a Higinbotham SOS of 50 or better. There were only four tier one teams, and technically, Indiana was the only one of the teams from the 5-team test that was in this tier. I meant to compare the teams at the bottom of each tier with teams at the top of the tier below and account for the ranked wins in doing so, but I forgot to do that, which is why Indiana ended up at number 4. I fixed this mistake when I was doing the 25-team test, and that's why Indiana ended up at number 11.
As for BYU, though, I ended up ranking them at about the same place the committee did in both the 15-team test and the 25-team test. That was not the case last week. I think BYU's right where they should be right now.
As I always say at the end of every article, remember to be kind to the officials.
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