BYU Men’s Basketball continues to live life on the edge as we get closer and closer to Selection Sunday. Just when things got back on track, the Cougars suffered back-to-back losses to Arizona and Cincinnati to put their tourney hopes in jeopardy, but then pulled off a gutsy road win against West Virginia to keep themselves alive. It's been a roller coaster of a season and whenever appears to gain momentum in one direction, it shoots back the opposite way.
This unstable play has left BYU in an unstable position on the bracket. With just seven regular season games to go, BYU is the first team out on Bracket Matrix. They appear in 55 out of the 106 brackets that make up the matrix, meaning they have plenty of work to do if they want to sleep well before the big reveal. In terms of the more recognizable brackets, Joe Lunardi and ESPN have the Cougars as the last team in, while CBS’s Jerry Palm has BYU as the first team out. The Cougs couldn’t be in a more uncertain position if they tried.
In order to safely put themselves on the right side of the bubble, BYU will need to stack more West Virginia-like performances together down the stretch. They certainly can’t afford any bad losses and will need to notch a couple of Quad 1 wins as well. These are the 3 most important games for BYU to close the season.
1. vs Kansas State (Feb. 15)
Whatever you do, do not be fooled by the Wildcats’ record of 13-11. K-State is red hot right now, beating three ranked teams over their last four games, with victories over Arizona, Kansas, and Iowa State. In fact, they rank as the best team in all of College Basketball over the last three weeks, according to Bart Torvik’s highly analytical T-Rank.
With the game being played at the Marriott Center this Saturday, the Cougs cannot afford to let one slip at home, even to a surging K-State. While the ‘Cats are playing excellent basketball right now, it would still likely go down as a Quadrant 2 loss, instead of a loss in Quadrant 1. With BYU often struggling going on the road, they need to take care of business at home in order to stay alive. While the other two games on this list present opportunities for big wins, this one makes the list as a more than possible loss that could derail BYU’s odds.
2. vs Kansas (Feb. 18)
Protecting home court against the Sunflower State will be the objective for Kevin Young and company over the next few days. Tuesday’s game against the Jayhawks will provide BYU with a golden opportunity to get their first ranked win of the season. The Marriott Center will be rocking to go against a blue-blood, while this version of KU shares BYU’s struggles of performing on the road.
BYU played an admirable first half against their last ranked opponent, Arizona, before running out of gas to finish the game. It will take a complete performance and some solid play from Egor Demin and Dallin Hall to win against the fifth best defense in the country, but ESPN gives the Cougars a 45% to pull off the home upset.
3. at Iowa State (March 4)
BYU has two massive road games over the next month, one at Arizona and the other at Iowa State. We’ve picked the Iowa State one here since it’s later in the season and their last chance to make a statement. The Cougars and Cyclones split the season series last year, although BYU came close to pulling a road upset and securing the sweep. They’ll obviously need an even better performance this year if they want to get the job done.
The Cyclones appear to be back on track after suffering three straight losses, having now won their last two. And Iowa State also boasts probably the second best home court advantage in the Big 12. But last year’s team stole a win in Allen Fieldhouse, so how bad can HIlton Coliseum be? This isn’t one that BYU should be expected to win. But that’s why it’s on the list. Shock the world, and move off of the bubble as a result.
With seven games to go, you could make an argument for each one to be on the list. A road game at Arizona State is a must win, as is the Holy War rematch to end the season. But protecting home court and making a loud statement at Hilton Coliseum will be the Cougar’s biggest and most important tests until the Big 12 Tournament in March.