Don't let their 6-3 record fool you: Baylor might just be one of the best football teams in a loaded Big 12 Conference. They'll visit LaVell Edwards Stadium this Saturday for a date with the 10th-ranked BYU Cougars, and could play spoiler for the sputtering Cougs' hopes of a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Kalani Sitake's program is firmly in the CFP picture and appears poised to walk into the 12-team postseason bracket and fight for a chance at the national championship... so long as they win out in their remaining three games.
And they'll be favored to, currently a 7.5-point home favorite against Baylor, the best team remaining on their schedule. Despite this game being set in Provo, UT, a location where BYU hasn't lost in the last two seasons, there's plenty of reason for the BYU faithful to feel cautious about projecting a win this Saturday.
Most noteworthy of which is Baylor's resume. Though the Bears haven't taken down any of the major players in the Big 12 Conference this year, they are just two one-point losses away from being 8-1 and being a sixth top-25 representative for the league.
They lost by one in the season-opener against Auburn. They lost by one on the road against Kansas three weeks ago. The only game in which they lost convincingly was against TCU, where the Bears posted just six points against a stout Horned Frogs defense.
Flip those two results, and this game might look drastically different.
Though if we're analyzing how the Bears are a product of bad fortune and close contests, it's only fair to analyze who they have beaten through nine games. And the answer is unfortunatley no one of note.
The Bears have the 75th-ranked strength of schedule in the Big 12 -- that's the second-lowest in the league -- with few marquee wins to speak of.
Rather than the quality of opponents, we're forced to judge Baylor based on the quality of their wins. That's where this team becomes frightening. They torched Arizona State and Central Florida, two teams that gave BYU trouble, by a combined score of 96-28. Dominance.
Just last weekend, the Bears handed Iowa State a 42-31 result, which is the second-most points allowed by the Cyclones' defense all season.
They also boast highly-talented quarterback DJ Lagway and one of the most effective defenses in the nation -- though with the caveat of a weak slate of opponents. They're the 18th-best scoring defense in the nation. BYU is 32nd, allowing over 2 more points per game.
But as serious of an opponent as Baylor is, they're facing an absolutely brutal final stretch of opponents -- (10) BYU, (12) Texas Tech, and (14) Houston -- that could knock them down to a 6-6 record to close the regular season.
Much like Kansas in 2024, they have nothing to lose against an in-conference gauntlet.
It doesn't help that BYU is still sobering up from their season-defining win against Notre Dame, following that top-5 victory with a double-overtime loss to UCF a narrow win against Arizona State, and a frustrating loss to Utah.
If the Cougars view themselves as a playoff-caliber team, it's time they start playing like one. If not, their dreams of a postseason berth could be dead by Saturday.
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