ESPN college football writer Davie Hale did some yeoman's work by putting all 136 FBS football teams into one of 20 different tiers. Despite Kalani Sitake's squad coming off an impressive 11-2 season a year ago and beginning 2025 ranked No. 23 in the Coaches Poll, you have to scroll down pretty far in Hale's article before finding BYU.
ESPN has BYU in Tier 8: Regression to the Mean (the Bad Kind).
Erm... what?
The Cougars are coupled with Duke, Missouri, Syracuse, and Vanderbilt as the programs that essentially got lucky last year and won't repeat their success in 2025. Hale cites the fact that many of these teams' wins took place in games that were decided by less than one score. He also pointed out that BYU and those four other schools often trailed in the fourth quarter before pulling out big wins.
Winning close games is the mark of a good team, not a lucky one!
Where Hale's logic is flawed is by holding one-score victories against BYU.
Winning close games is the mark of a good team, not a subpar team that just repeatedly got lucky. Winning tight contests in college football is a mark of a good coaching staff and players who can execute. The reality is, many Power Four conference football games have betting lines that are less than seven points (one score). While the Top 10 teams might regularly blow out their opponents, for the rest of the country, many games are something of a 50-50 proposition.
Bad teams don't win close games. Bad teams lose close games!
Instead of holding close wins against BYU, ESPN should be celebrating them. ESPN says BYU got lucky, I say they were clutch. Hale says the "football gods" intervened in BYU's success, I say the trinity of Kalani Sitake, Aaron Roderick and Jay Hill repeatedly put their team in a position to succeed, then did just that.
ESPN is discounting BYU's outstanding defense and special teams
While the ESPN article didn't go into an in-depth analysis of why they are so down on BYU specifically, they're discounting the Cougars defense and special teams. In 2024 BYU had the Big 12's best defense, and it might only get better in 2025. If Jay Hill's D can continue to operate at an elite level, the Cougars are going to be in just about every game.
The often overlooked third leg of the football stool is special teams, and BYU has one of the best units in the country. Kicker Will Ferrin was one of the best, most clutch players at his position in the country in 2024. He begins this season named to the Groza Award Watch List.
Similarly, Parker Kingston was named to the Jet Award Watch List given to the most outstanding return specialist in the country. Between Ferrin's foot and Kingston's legs, the Cougars special teams give BYU a built-in advantage most games.
Yes, BYU's offense is a question mark as the team will break in a new quarterback this year, but they went 11-2 last season without a top-notch passing game.
ESPN thinks BYU will regress to the mean in 2025.
With all due respect, with stellar defense and special teams, it's more likely the Cougars will sustain last year's success than take a step back this year.