Look, if you told me at the beginning of the season that BYU basketball, led by potential number-one overall pick and national player of the year AJ Dybantsa, All-Big 12 First-team senior Richie Saunders, 5-star sophomore point guard Rob Wright, and a tsunami of momentum carrying the team from last year's Sweet 16 run, would be a mere 10th seed in the Big 12 Conference by season's end, I would have evaporated into thin air.
Incorporialization of the spontaneous order. Grasping that concept would be so detrimental to my body's constitution, that I would instantly cease to exist. One moment, I'm living my life, and the next I'm vapor. We all have to go somehow, I suppose.
Yet today, having slowly witnessed Kevin Young's BYU basketball squad face an embarrassment of injuries and a baffling close to the season -- losing four of their last six games, including games against Cincinnati, UCF, and West Virginia, yet winning against top-10 teams Iowa State and Texas Tech -- I feel nothing. Not that I've already disintegrated, but that I have been worn down, confused, and taken for such a ride that my fanatic nervous system no longer serves its intended function: get me ecstatic in the presence of victory and helplessly depressed in defeat.
One thing has been made perfectly clear since the loss of Richie Saunders with his ACL tear: anything could happen for BYU basketball this postseason. Good or bad.
Could they topple the giants of the Big 12 behind the potent tandem of Dybantsa and Wright? Absolutely. With an increased defensive effort and new life instilled in the bloodstream of Khadim Mboup, Keba Keita, Kennard Davis, and even Aleksej Kostic, this team has proved to be capable of taking down the very best in the nation.
But with that same bunch, this team was embarrassed at home against UCF. They were stomped all over by Cincinnati. And worst of all, they were out-hustled, muscled, and deflated by West Virginia.
BYU hoops has been many things this season, but "predictable" would not be an accurate assessment.
Yet predicting is exactly what I intend to do before the Big 12 Tournament begins.
BYU basketball's path through the Big 12 Basketball Tournament
Round one vs Kansas State:
BYU has already faced Kansas State this season, and won on the road in Manhattan. Though the Cougars are a bit deflated with the loss of Saunders, the Wildcats are without head coach Jerome Tang, and fell to 15th in the standings for a reason.
Round two vs West Virginia:
And already, I'm sweating. The Mountaineers and Cougars faced off very recently in Morgantown, where a late BYU comeback (too little, too late: the 2025-26 BYU basketball story) was stifled by heartless defense and atrocious defensive rebounding effort.
Now this team understands that wins will not be gifted, nor will they luck into advancement with teams like West Virginia fighting for their life and a spot in the NCAA Tournament. If BYU can bring the fight to WVU, the Cougars are more than capable of surviving and advancing.
Round three vs Houston:
If the Cougars can reach this matchup with, well, the Cougars, this is likely the end of the road for BYU. Kelvin Sampson has had Kevin Young's number in each of their matchups over the past two seasons, including an 11-point win in Provo earlier this year. Houston is Houston, and there's a reason why they reached the national championship game last season: they're equal parts discliplined and talented.
If Dybantsa and Wright can have a special game, and BYU matches Houston's effort level on the defensive end (easier said than done) the boys in blue have a chance. In March, that's often all you need.
Round four vs. Kansas/TCU
Though I expect Kansas to win in their likely matchup with the Horned Frogs, both of these teams can be incredibly dangerous in the postseason. BYU has witnessed firsthand how challenging it can be to shake TCU's sights, and Kansas is one of the most talented groups in the nation, if not a bit of a circus from time to time.
Still, BYU has already won against TCU, and nearly stole victory from the jaws of defeat in Lawrence, despite an array of three-point shooting from Kansas. These games are winnable, though improbable in Kansas' case.
Round five vs. Iowa State/Arizona/Texas Tech
Let me be perfectly transparent: I don't believe that BYU reaches this point, nor do I believe a cinderella team disrupts the top-heavy Big 12 Conference at this time in the season. In all likelihood, Arizona awaits in the championship round, stuffed with NBA talent and an unbeatable track record against their Big 12 foes.
Here's the good news: BYU was within reach both times they faced Arizona, split the season series with Tech, and took down Iowa State in their only meeting with the Cyclones.
It would take an unbelievable amount of good fortune, execution, and flat-out luck to reach this point, but if BYU basketball can be the team they displayed against ISU or Texas Tech recently, there are very few things standing in the way of AJ Dybantsa's flight.