The BYU Cougars (5-0) head to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats (4-1) in a crucial Big 12 matchup for both teams. While Texas Tech looks like the team to beat in the conference this year, both BYU and Arizona are among the legitimate contenders to play in the Big 12 championship game this season. It's going to be a close game dominated by two excellent defenses.
Will BYU’s offense be able to pass the ball?
How will BYU’s offense and freshman quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, fare against one the best pass defenses in the country?
As I have previously written, Arizona is allowing opposing quarterback to complete just 51.3% of their pass attempts this season while averaging just 147.2 passing yards per game. In all, the Wildcats defense is allowing a stingy 3.9 yards per play, which is fourth best in the nation trailing only Oklahoma, Toledo, and Ohio State.
Under offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick, the Cougars have traditionally used the passing game to set up the run. Roderick likes to call several long bombs every game to keep safeties deep and linebackers honest.
When the passing game is doing its job, BYU likes to bully its opponents into submission with a physical, punishing ground game LJ Martin is the perfect bruising running back for this system, but there’s little depth behind him right now. Sione Moa is injured, backup Jovesa Damuni fumbled last week and fell down this week's depth chart, so inexperienced Preston Rex is now RB2.
As the running game gets going, BYU’s play action game becomes extremely effective. But all of this is contingent upon the Cougars being able to establish the passing game from the outset. This will be a tall task for a team playing with a freshman quarterback against an elite defense in a hostile road environment. BYU's offense is going to struggle in this one.
Can BYU defense disrupt quarterback Noah Fifita?
The Big 12 is loaded with quality quarterbacks, and Arizona's Noah Fifita is one of them. After an explosive red shirt freshman season in 2023, Fifita fell back down to earth a little bit in 2024. But through five games in his 2025 campaign, he has been excellent.
The redshirt Junior has thrown for 1,341 yards this season, completing 64.6% of his throws with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions.
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The question is if BYU’s front four can generate pressure and make Fifita feel uncomfortable. This needs to be a game where defensive ends like Logan Lutui, Bodie Schoonover, Viliami Po’uha, and Hunter Clegg get to the quarterback. On the season those four defensive ends have combined for...(*checks notes*)...zero sacks. Outside linebacker Jack Kelly, by far the team's best rusher, is listed as doubtful this this game. BYU's defensive ends need to step up and not only put pressure on Noah Fifita, but sack him several times in this one.
The Cougars interior defensive line consisting of Keanu Tanuvasa, Justin Kirkland, and John Taumoepeau has been consistently good eating up blockers and helping free up edge rushers. Their collective numbers don’t jump off the stat sheet, but the impact of interior defensive linemen cannot be easily captured in a traditional box score. They're very good, but they'll need to be great against Arizona.
BYU Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats final prediction
This game is literally a coin flip for me. It could go either way. The outcome could very well be decided by a strange bounce of the ball, a tipped pass, one missed field goal, or a bad call by the referees.
Most Big 12 conference games are something of a 50-50 proposition, this one included. I have recently written about BYU’s concerning lack of a killer instinct, and I’m afraid that could doom the Cougars in a difficult road contest. This is especially true with the injury to Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker being dinged up, and the lack of depth at running back behind LJ Martin.
Look for a low-scoring game where BYU falls behind early then claws its way back into contention. But unlike lesser teams like Colorado and West Virginia, Arizona is playing too well for any lapses from the Cougars. I wouldn't be surprised at all for BYU to emerge victorious in this one -- and I hope they do -- but all signs point to a close, low-scoring win for the home team.
Final score: Arizona 17, BYU 16