I won't bury the lede here: BYU is going to beat UCF this week.
The only question is by how many points, and if the Cougars win at home against an inferior opponent, it will be impressive enough in the eyes of an anti-Big 12, anti-BYU College Football Playoff selection committee to matter.
Why the Cougars will win
While most Power Four college football games are something of a 50-50 proposition, BYU is simply playing at a much higher level than UCF for the outcome to be in jeopardy. The Cougars are 10-1 and ranked No. 11 nationally. UCF is 5-6 and just 2-6 in Big 12 conference play this year.
To reduce football to its simplest form, you win the game by scoring more points than your opponent.
On the season BYU's offense is averaging 33.4 points per game to UCF's 24.6. BYU's offense scores 8.8 more points per game than UCF.
On the defensive side of the ball, BYU's defense allows 17.5 points per game compared to UCF's 22.0. That's another 4.5 points per game advantage to the Cougars. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill is a football genius, and he'll be ready for the Knights.
The combination of UFC's offense averaging 24.6 points per game while BYU's defense surrenders a stingy 17.5 points per outing is going to make things difficult for the Knights. UCF doesn't have a "super power" on the offensive side of the ball. They rank ninth in the Big 12 in both passing yards per game (217.7) and rushing yards per game (168.5). Those aren't bad marks, per se, but it means the Knights don't have a clear strength they can lean on and try to exploit.
BYU's outstanding defense will create a host of three-and-outs and provide the Cougars offense with good starting field position throughout the game, leading to a comfortable win.
How many "style points" will BYU earn with the CFP selection committee?
The main question surrounding this week's game isn't if BYU will win (they will), but rather by how many points.
The College Football Selection Committee continues to move the goalposts when evaluating the Cougars, selectively applying standards to diminish BYU that they don't apply to other teams competing for an at-large playoff invitation. For many CFP voters, it all comes down to the dreaded "eye test." They just don't think BYU "looks" good enough in the methodical way in which they win.
The CFP selection committee wants style points.
No. 11 BYU is competing for a potential at-large bid with the likes of No. 7 Oregon and No. 9 Notre Dame.
10-1 Oregon has won its last five games, and four of those victories have come by more than two touchdowns, including a 56-10 drubbing of Rutgers.
8-2 Notre Dame is coming off a 39-point win over Navy, a 22-point victory over then No. 22 Pittsburgh, and a 70-7 beatdown of Syracuse last week.
Those are the style points the CFP selection committee is looking for.
Unfortunately for BYU fans, Kalani Sitake is not the type of coach who runs up the score. If anything, Kalani looks visibly uncomfortable when his team wins by multiple scores, afraid he may have shown up his opponent or potentially embarrassed his rival coach. And that take-the-foot-off-the-gas-pedal mentality often costs BYU in terms of credibility with AP voters, national pundits, and the CFP selection committee. The Cougs win, but they don't dominate. After last week's 26-14 win over Cincinnati, Coach Sitake mentioned he wished running back LJ Martin had gone down rather than scoring a late touchdown to push BYU's margin of victory from five points to 12.
That same "win but don't embarrass your opponent" philosophy will play out against UCF.
Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will employ a conservative, deliberate, run-heavy offensive game plan designed to wear out UCF front four as the game goes on. Roderick's game plan will favor ball security and time of possession over home runs. As a result the Cougs offense will start slow then pull ahead in the second half against a gassed UCF defensive line.
BYU will keep their fans nervous through the first half with a 13-7 halftime lead. But the Cougs physical, methodical game plan will wear out the Knights in the second half, burn clock, and limit possessions. BYU will lead 27-10 late in the game, but the defense will surrender a late garbage time touchdown for less-than-impressive win in the eyes of an already skeptical CFP selection committee.
The Cougars will vanquish their foe, but BYU fans hoping for a blowout victory to earn at least some style points will leave frustrated that the Cougs didn't go for the jugular and not let up.
Final score: BYU 27, UCF 17