What coach Kalani Sitake, defensive coordinator Jay Hill, and offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick have done with the BYU football program over the last two years is stunning. It's remarkable. As a BYU fan, it's sports nirvana. What the program has accomplished under their leadership should never be taken for granted and should be celebrated for years to come.
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Under the leadership of these three outstanding football minds, the Cougars are 19-2 over the last two seasons. Last year, the Cougars rose as high as No. 6 in the College Football Playoffs rankings and finished the season ranked No. 13 in the country. Today, the Cougars are No. 7 in the CFP rankings and No. 8 in the AP Poll. They are doing this despite the shocking departure of quarterback Jake Retzlaff and the incredible rise of true freshman Bear Bachmeier. Some football programs go decades before reaching the rarified air BYU is flying in today. Other programs simply never get there.
And yet, here comes the 'but.'
But while BYU is winning under the culture established by Sitake, Hill, and Roderick -- which is wonderful and joyous -- the Cougars often lack a killer instinct. Once these Cougars pounce on their prey, they rarely deliver an immediate, fatal bite to the jugular. They often play with their food, let it scurry around, and sometimes even escape for a moment before finally delivering the death blow.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, kills its prey before it knows what hit them. And it's that stark difference in mindset that will cost the No. 8 Cougars in their epic matchup with the No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday.
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BYU plays with its food
Kalani Sitake's smiling face deserves to be chiseled on BYU football's Mount Rushmore. He's an incredible coach. He's an incredible human being. He is the perfect person to not only lead BYU's football program, but to represent the the university at large and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints as a whole. I hope Kalani Sitake has a 30-year coaching run at BYU as the next LaVell Edwards. I want a Kalani Sitake statue in Provo a few decades from now.
While Kalani has built a winning program, the Cougars are still learning to be dominant. It's this lack of dominance that holds BYU back in the minds of college football fans, the media, and AP voters.
While BYU is winning - which is the ultimate goal - they aren't always impressive in doing so. They often fall behind early and pull away late, sometimes winning games in nearly miraculous fashion.
This year, they trailed Colorado 14-10 at halftime before squeaking out a three-point win. Two weeks later, the Cougs trailed Arizona by three at halftime and needed double overtime to pull out a victory.
The following week, BYU won the all-important Holy War against rival Utah, but failed to go for the jugular when they had the chance. The Cougars led 24-14 with 3:01 left in the game while taking possession at the Utah 28-yard line -- starting in field goal range. Instead of putting the game out of reach, BYU's drive was a "four-and-out" that went five yards and took just 19 seconds off the clock. Utah got the ball back and marched 77 yards in five plays for a touchdown in just one minute and 21 seconds, narrowing the game to 24-21. Utah failed on the subsequent onside kick to potentially tie or win the game.
One week after the Holy War BYU fell behind to Iowa State 24-10 before turning things around for an impressive 14-point victory.
BYU is winning, but they're not dominating. Texas Tech is winning and dominating, which is why I give them the edge in this game.
Texas Tech devours its food
BYU tends to play with its food while Texas Tech unapologetically devours it. In three non-conference games, Texas Tech outscored their opponents 174-35. In Tech's five Big 12 conference wins they have outscored their opponents 196-58.
In other words, through five Big 12 wins against Utah, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, Texas Tech's average score has been 39-12. They are annihilating teams, pouncing on them early, then going for the kill. They don't let up. They don't take their foot off the gas pedal. Texas Tech has been crushing their opponents, and their victories this year have been more than impressive.
Texas Tech's only loss came on the road against defending Big 12 champion Arizona State. The Red Raiders played that game without starting quarterback senior Behren Morton who was replaced by redshirt freshman Will Hammond. Even then, Arizona State won by just four points after scoring a game-winning touchdown with 34 seconds left.
Texas Tech is 8-1, but man, all eight of those victories have been extremely impressive.
Final prediction: BYU vs Texas Tech
Instead of breaking down all of the different offensive, defensive, and special teams stats and doing side-by-side comparisons of relatives strengths and weaknesses, my prediction this week is based solely on how each team has been winning this year.
BYU knows how to win. Heck, they are 19-2 over their last 21 games! And kudos to Kalani Sitake and his program for what is quite literally the most impressive run in BYU football history. The Cougars know how to win!
On the flip side, the Red Raiders know how to dominate. They have the killer instinct. They pounce fast and immediately take down their prey. They don't play with their food. Given that mindset and the advantage of playing at home, my prediction is another impressive win for Texas Tech.
Final score: Texas Tech 37, BYU 21