When looking simply at records, it's not unreasonable to quickly conclude that the 15-1 BYU Cougars should roll to a fairly easy win against the 11-5 TCU Horned Frogs.
But TCU's five losses need some context.
TCU's "quality losses"
The Horned Frogs inexplicably lost their first game of the season at home against New Orleans. It was TCU's first loss against a non-Big 12 conference opponent since 2022, so that loss was a schocker.
But the other four losses this season were the types that would make SEC football enthusiasts downright giddy as they could be considered "quality losses."
The Horned Frogs lost by four points to current No. 2 Michigan in a competitive game against a Wolverines team that has been obliterating almost everybody this year. TCU's next two losses both came in overtime, one against Notre Dame and another on the road at No. 22 Kansas.
Oh, and on Sunday night the Horned Frogs lost to No. 1 Arizona.
TCU has also pulled off at least a couple of decent wins this season. They racked up impressive back-to-back against Florida and Wisconsin. The Horned Frogs kicked off Big 12 conference play with a victory over Baylor.
Some 11-5 records are more impressive than others, and TCU's looks better than most. They are ranked No. 53 in Ken Pom and that feels about right for a team that could easily qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
Statistical breakdown: TCU Horned Frogs
While BYU is favored at home in this one, the Cougars are still going to have to bring their A-game.
TCU is a balanced team with four players averaging double-digits scoring, but they don't have any dominant individual scorers with forward David Punch leading the team at just over 14 points per game. Punch is also the teams leading rebounder at 7.8 per game, making him the key player for the Cougars to contain.
As a team, one key stat for BYU fans to monitor is TCU's offensive rebounding percentage, an advanced stat that estimates the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team snags. TCU's offensive rebounding percentage of 34.3% ranks No. 119 of 365 schools, so this isn't a team known for crashing the offensive glass and generating a ton of extra possessions. BYU's offensive rebounding percentage, as a benchmark, is slightly better at 35.3% which ranks No. 81.
TCU also has a solid defense that is currently ranked No. 26 in the country, so they could present a defensive challenge to the Cougars.
But TCU's offense isn't nearly as formidable, ranking No. 97 in the country per Ken Pom.
BYU might struggle a bit offensively against a solid Horned Frogs team, but in the end the Cougs will get the win.
Prediction: BYU 82, TCU 70