It pains me to say this, but BYU football never beats TCU. Not in their last five meetings with the Horned Frogs, at least. It's baffling, it's frustrating, and it's agonizing to admit that this former Mountain West rival has the Cougars' number historically, but seemingly every time these two square off, Cosmo is absorbed in the hypnotoad's gaze.
These two are old Mountain West foes now reunited (alongside Utah) in the Big 12. In BYU's only power four tussle with TCU, Kedon Slovis (who is officially an NFL player now, by the way) and the Cougars were run out of Fort Worth in a humiliating and stifling 44-11 defeat
But that was BYU's first season in the Big 12, and a year that saw Kalani's crew without the defensive mastermind Jay Hill in the barracks. A team that missed out on bowl eligibility with just five wins on the season. A team that was forced to play Jake Retzlaff before he was cool (and then not cool, and then cool again). This season's edition carries a different narrative, though not one that should offer the Cougars much comfort.
BYU is ranked 12th and knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. Win out during the regular season, and it's likely they sneak into the final bracket, even with a loss to Texas Tech in the championship game. Lose, and the Cougars will need an unhealthy combination of luck and upset-ability (if there is such a thing) to claim an auto-bid. The first alternative sounds far more pleasant to me.
Related: Did BYU football lose their shot at the College Football Playoff with a loss to Texas Tech?
TCU, on the other hand, is 6-3, unranked, and standing with a near-zero chance to breach the Big 12 Conference championship game in Arlington. An above-average conference adversary entering Provo, Utah, a site where visitors come to die (just ask the Utes), TCU is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Iowa State in which their 17-6 fourth quarter lead evaporated to a 20-6 defeat in the blink of an eye.
The Horned Frogs are staggering, but so is BYU on the opposite sideline. Both teams see this game as a must-win for different reasons, but a must-win nonetheless.
If I can be candid with you, I'm severely concerned about BYU's outlook against TCU. As a program, BYU hasn't taken down TCU since 2007. That's nearly 20 years ago.
Since BYU's last victory against the Horned Frogs, the Cougars have transitioned from the Mountain West Conference to independence and into the Big 12 Conference, and are 0-for-5 during that stretch when taking a swing at Texas Christian.
Anxiety swirls through the atmosphere at the foot of Mount Timpanogos since the Cougars' faltering loss in Lubbock. Just a year ago, this same team faltered in back-to-back contests since opening 9-0. Now, sitting 8-1, we have no idea how BYU will respond to this sudden adversity. Are they doomed to sputter and stall before reaching the finish line, or have the veterans and coaches leading this team learned and improved since last season's let-down?
Against a team that the Cougars can never seem to beat, there is plenty of reason to be skeptical that BYU can stay out of its own way, ignoring the demons of failures long passed. BYU are favored by 4.5 points at the time of publishing, despite this being a night game in LaVell Edwards Stadium. Never trust the odds in a BYU football game, but don't ignore that fear saturates the atmosphere this time of year.
BYU and TCU square off on Saturday at 8:15 PM MT.