To say BYU is limping into the final week of the Big 12 regular season is putting it mildly. The Cougars have lost seven of their last 10 conference games.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has hit its stride. The Bearcats have won five of their last six games, a stretch that has included some impressive victories. They thumped a really good UCF team by 20 the obliterated Kansas State by 29. After a close win against Utah, Cincy pummeled No. 8 Kansas 16, lost at No. 16 Texas Tech, then last Saturday demolished Oklahoma State by 23.
These are two programs headed in different directions, but Cincinnati isn't unbeatable. Here's what we know about the Bearcats.
Cincinnati's key statistics
Kenpom currently ranks Cincy at No. 44 nationally. This is a better team than their 16-13 record indicates.
Interestingly, Kenpom has a "Luck" measurement and Cincy ranks No. 330 of 365 teams, making them one of the "unluckiest" programs in the country. At a high level, "luck" is calculated by a team's actual record versus their expected record, and per Kenpom the Bearcats are better than what their record indicates.
The Bearcats hang their hat on their smothering defense which ranks 13th in the nation. BYU will have its hands full if this game turns into the "AJ & Rob Show". Both Dybantsa and Wright are electric scorers, and there's a reason why AJ Dybantsa is leading the nation in scoring on ridiculous efficiency. But Cincy's defense is too good for BYU's top two scorers to just attack it via isolation.
I know we've said this before, but the Cougs are going to need to get some solid offense for someone -- anyone -- outside of Dybantsa and Wright.
Enter Alexsej Kostic.
Over his last two games the freshman reserve has scored 14 against UCF and 12 versus West Virginia while coming off the bench. Over those two games he has shot 9-of-21 from the field and 8-of-17 from the 3-point line. The Cougars have been desperate all season to find a replacement for the bench scoring they were counting on from Dawson Baker who was lost for the season, and the need was only compounded when Richie Saunders tore his ACL.
Throw in the fact that expected key reserves like KJ Perry, Nate Pickens, and Brody Kozlowski have missed the season, and it's no wonder bench scoring has been an issue all year for the Cougars.
If BYU can get three or four 3-pointers from Kostic against Cincinnati along with at least adequate scoring from Mihailo Boskovic and Kennard Davis Jr., BYU will have enough firepower with Dybantsa and Wright to win this game.
This assumes, of course, the Cougars put forth some effort on the defense end of the court, and that's totally up to the players. Cincinnati isn't a great offensive team and ranks just No. 130th in the country in offensive rating. Their leading scorer, forward Baba Miller, averages 13.7 points per game, so they don't have any elite scorers who could go for 30 on any given night. They also as a team only average 7.5 made 3-pointers per game on a poor 32.4% shooting percentage from deep. Maybe this is the game where a BYU opponent that isn't known for its 3-point shooting actually misses some shots?
BYU is stumbling right now while Cincinnati has found its closing kick.
A "get right" win for the Cougs enabled by some continued sharp shooting from Alexsej Kostic would be a major step forward for Kevin Young's squad.