The Big 12 schedule is officially -- kind of -- mostly underway, with in-conference competition officially becoming the norm across the league. Save for one Houston-flavored exception, every team in the Big 12 Conference is finished posturing against other leagues and is ready to compete for a slice of the conference crown.
For some, this is an opportunity to deliver a killing blow against some of the strongest squads in the nation. For others, this is a chance to legitimize non-conference success and build a locomotive for sustained success in the future.
For me, it's a golden opening to talk football, make some picks, and ultimately be proven wrong. I can't imagine a more exciting way to be publicly humiliated on the internet. Without further rambling, here are predictions for every single Big 12 game in the week 5 slate.
Big 12 Conference Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds
24 TCU vs Arizona State (-1.5)
These two squads opened the season with polar opposite expectations. Arizona State seemed the favorite to repeat as conference champions, and TCU sat near the bottom of the ladder hoping to turn some heads, but truthfully not expected to accomplish much.
But at this early point in the year, it's the Sun Devils who have fallen from grace and the Horned Frogs that breached the top 25. TCU has two wins over ACC squads (UNC and SMU) in the non-conference, while Arizona State's first taste of Power Four competition turned ugly against Mississippi State. Coach Dillingham rallied the troops and nearly completed a chaotic comeback in the second half, but the damage has been done.
ASU enters this game with home field advantage, but the Frogs are just too hot -- even for Tempe. TCU in a nail-biter.
Prediction: TCU 30, ASU 28
Houston (-10.5) vs Oregon State
Well, look who made it to the party! Welcome, Houston, as one of the remaining undefeated squads in the Big 12. The Cougars already boast a controlling win over Colorado, and enter this game with the diminished and disheartened Pac-12 Beavers of Oregon State. Houston continues to impress in this one, covering the spread and comfortably escaping Corvallis with a W.
Prediction: Houston 35, Oregon State 21
Cincinnati vs Kansas (-5.5)
Save for a road loss to a now-ranked Missouri team, what has been Kansas' crime thus far into the season? I'd argue, this team has far more to be excited about than to fear, especially after rolling through West Virginia by 31 points last week.
As for Cincinnati, this could be another trying season of football for the Bearcats. While I tip my cap for a close loss in Lincoln and a comfortable win against Bowling Green, you are awarded no points for a 70-0 win against Northwestern State. Kansas will have answers for the Bearcats.
Daniels will continue to make plays, and he should be the difference-maker in this one. Jayhawks cover the spread.
Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Kansas 24
UCF vs Kansas State (-6.5)
Given everything we've seen from Kansas State this year, it's pretty shocking that the 1-3 Wildcats are nearly a touchdown favorite against unbeaten UCF this week. Avery Johnson hasn't panned out as advertised, nor has anyone picked up the slack in losses against Iowa State, Arizona, and even Army.
UCF is turning a new leaf under an old tree, as Scott Frost has been reinstated as the Knights' program lead and has yet to lose a game with the program in his last 16 appearances. Sorry, oddsmakers, but you've got this one all wrong. Knights win on the road.
Prediction: UCF 27, Kansas State 23
Baylor (-20.5) vs Oklahoma State
Don't overlook Baylor this season, the Bears don't have a bad loss on the schedule if you ask me. Sure, they're 2-2, but with losses coming by 3 to an underrated ASU team and against an equally underrated Auburn squad, the Bears have plenty more to prove, and will do just that against a dead-and-gone Oklahoma State squad, even in Stillwater.
Prediction: Baylor 34, OSU 14
Utah (-9.5) vs West Virginia
Can we cool it with the "Utah is dead" conversations? They've lost one game against the Big 12 favorites in Texas Tech, in a game that held a single-digit score differential until the fourth quarter implosion on turf heard 'round the world.
The Utes didn't pass the eye test, nor did they give fans much reason to expect anything drastically improved from last year's concentrated misery, but against a reconstructing West Virginia program, the Utes can get up off the ground, dust themselves off, and keep moving forward. I expect a confidence-boosting performance for Utah, even with Dampier's status up in the air.
Prediction: Utah 27, WVU 17
Arizona vs 14 Iowa State (-7.5)
Iowa State has all the pieces to be a Big 12 champion this season. The question is whether they can capitalize on a proven and experienced head coach, veteran quarterback, and capable defense to become the team we know is hiding somewhere in Ames.
Arizona enters this game unbeaten and one of the major surprises of the season to this point, having taken down Kansas State and arriving in this battle standing in the top 10 of the league's power rankings. Take that as a compliment or a drawback -- that's your call -- but the Wildcats have much more to offer this season than previously, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arizona give ISU a real fright on Saturday.
In my eyes, though, Iowa State makes a statement here, and the Wildcats just happened to be caught in the path of the storm.
Prediction: Arizona 20, ISU 41
25 BYU (-6.5) vs Colorado
BYU is, once again, a major question mark in the Big 12 landscape. Picked to be a mediocre team until their true freshman quarterback can prove he's up to the task, the Cougars have already confirmed tremendous coaching and elite defensive potency in their first three games (they've allowed one touchdown in three games. Total.), but this game will be the first true taste of Big 12 football for Bear Bachmeier, and could serve as the platform for his official welcoming party.
Colorado enters this meeting with plenty of question marks of their own. Namely, who's the answer at quarterback, and is this team built to compete at nearly the level we saw Deion's team reach last season? On the surface, this game tilts heavily toward BYU -- expect the scoreboard to follow suit.
Prediction: BYU 37, Colorado 16