Tomorrow, the Cougars finally have an opportunity to get a taste of March glory, just one year removed from their upset loss at the hands of Duquesne to open last season’s tournament. Once again, they’ll be playing the 11-seeded A-10 champion, this time VCU.
The Rams are regarded as one of the most under-seeded and dangerous teams in the entire tournament, so it will take a full 40-minute effort from Kevin Young’s squad to advance to the next round in this one. Here are 3 keys to a Cougar victory:
Get an Advantage Inside
VCU has one of the best interior defenses in the entire country, as their opponents only shoot 43.6% inside the arc, the 4th lowest mark in the country. Freshman Luke Bamgboye paces the Rams with 2.4 blocks per game, while junior Christian Fermin also averages over 1 block per game, including a 5 block outing earlier this season against La Salle.
Both BYU and VCU will shoot a ton of 3s on Thursday, and if one team gets especially hot, that will be the difference. But if neither team grabs a decisive advantage from behind the arc, the battles down low will be pivotal. Both Keba Keita’s lob finishing and Fousseyni Traore’s post-up work will need to be on point to crack one of the nation’s top defenses.
Despite their 3 point focus this year, the Cougars are number 6 in the country in 2-pt field goal percentage at 58.6%. If the Rams can slow that down with their shot-blocking bigs and force BYU to be even more one dimensional, they’ll have a terrific shot at pulling the upset. Egor Demin will be critical for BYU too, as he needs to set up the big guys early to establish the tone of the game.
The battle for the boards will also be huge for the big guys, especially after a VCU missed shot. The Rams are the 9th best offensive rebounding team in the country, while BYU isn’t bad on the boards either, coming in as the 31st best defensive rebounding team. And the more rebounds the Cougars get, the less full court pressure they’ll face from VCU. And speaking of pressure…
Don’t Turn the Ball Over
While BYU famously won a few weeks ago at Iowa State despite committing 29 turnovers, that’s not something that Kevin Young or any other coach in the country will attempt to repeat anytime soon. And unfortunately for the turnover-prone Cougars, the VCU defense will be physical, aggressive, and Houston-like all game long.
The most notable thing about VCU’s defense is their full-court pressure that is implemented a few different ways, from light pressure on the ball handler to a full-on trap defense. BYU has struggled with such aggressiveness this season, so things could get dicey if the Cougars aren’t careful.
Where VCU is different from a defense like Houston, is their less aggressive approach to guarding ball screens. They tend to play drop coverage where they can cover the roller, while Houston is famous for blitzing both defenders at the ball handler and rotating to cover the roller. The drop coverage that BYU will face should allow Richie Saunders to utilize his floater and Dallin Hall to get in the lane and put his defender in jail, which he seems to love to do.
But above all those things, the number one focus for the offense should be on not turning the ball over. If they can get stops of their own and get out in transition, the less they’ll have to go against the pressure and a set up VCU defense. The Rams are 34th nationally with over 8 steals per game, and their eyes will surely light up at the first sign of sloppiness from BYU.
Slow Down Max Shulga
VCU will go as far as A-10 player of the year Max Shulga will take them. The former Utah State Aggie, now in his fifth year (second with VCU), is an excellent creator and scorer for the Rams, posting 15.1 points and 4.0 assists per game.
It all starts with his shot, as he shoots 38.6% from 3 on high volume. And once the defender has to respect his shooting, Shulga punishes them by pushing the ball inside, where he can knock down a mid-range shot or take it to the rim with elite acceleration and deceleration.
A true combo guard, Shulga will be a floor general with the ball in his hands, and a constantly moving, catch-and-shoot threat without it. The BYU defense will have to hound him as much as possible, while also staying grounded and avoiding any pump fakes or deception that the 5th year player has up his sleeve.
It is imperative that the BYU perimeter defenders keep Shulga in front of them, as the defense has struggled all year, and giving an NBA-caliber passer a 5-on-4 because of a blown assignment is not a recipe for success.
Trey Stewart’s emergence this season has been a huge blessing for Kevin Young, and should be once again on Thursday. While he won’t start, Stewart’s incredible on-ball defense may very well come in handy off the bench should Shulga get hot early. And Stewart’s own 3-point shooting will allow him to contribute offensively too, a luxury not many other defensive specialists across the country possess.
Shulga isn’t the most physical player, so it will be up to the BYU defense to make him uncomfortable by being the more physical team, even at the cost of a few extra fouls. Because if not, it could be a long day for the Cougars watching Shulga torch the nets.
The Cougars certainly have what it takes to move on, and they've been building for March all season long. A few months ago, a even appearing in the tournament was an uncertainty, but if they can limit Shulga and find ways to produce on offense, they should have no problem walking out with a win.