We've hit an inflection point in the BYU basketball season, where a win could lift the squad to tournament consideration, but a loss could spell doom for a program that sits at .500 in league play and boasts zero marquee victories against a top-25 opponent.
Early losses to the likes of TCU, Utah, and Cincinnati have dug the Cougars into a delicate situation, where the margin for error continues shrinking with every ill-advised decision, shot, or turnover. Every game counts now with only 8 more games before the Big 12 Conference tournament, where an automatic bid will be awarded to the champion.
BYU has not shown the gumption in high-pressure games to sneak into the final against the likes of Houston, Iowa State, Arizona, and others vying for the conference crown.
An at-large bid has to be the aim, and that begins with Tuesday's battle in Morgantown, West Virginia.
West Virginia, the Cougars' foe in this one, has been bipolar in their results. They change their minds like a girl changes clothes, and in recent weeks, the Mountaineers haven't displayed the resolve necessary to make a significant impact on the Big 12 Conference.
Recent defeats to the likes of TCU, Kansas State, and Arizona State stick out in stark contrast to their big-time wins against Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona, and Gonzaga. The Mountaineers are a confounding bunch.
The good news for BYU: this Mountaineer side doesn't project nearly as favorably as they may have in the first 10 weeks of the year. The bad news? This is a roster capable of taking down anyone on any given night, and BYU has proved just the opposite as they drop inexplicable games without stretching beyond an overtime home win against Baylor.
Defense is where West Virginia stakes its reputation, as offensive numbers ranked in the 300s suggest this is a squad that has to take you down by turning off the tap and drying your offense out.
BYU fell behind and stayed behind Cincinnati after the Bearcats eliminated any semblance of offense on a 22-2 run to open the second half. Kevin Young can't allow another drought of that magnitude against a WVU side that will not allow you to come back.
Strong guard play and powerful interior defense of their own could lift the Cougars to a road win--and a much-needed one at that. If BYU can limit turnovers and value high-percentage looks, they should be able to escape the WVU Coliseum with a victory.
Heaven knows their March hopes likely depend on it.