Look, to be completely candid, BYU basketball hasn't exactly had a perfect season. But compared to the year Kansas State endured, I'd say things are very good over in Provo, Utah, these days.
The Wildcats (12-19, 3-15 Big 12) are second-worst in the conference, leading only a historically bad Utah team after a season that saw the Wildcats collect zero ranked wins, zero road conference wins, and cost head coach Jerome Tang his job.
Despite standing at 10th in the conference standings and being forced to play from the first round of the Big 12 Conference bracket, BYU has to like their chances against K-State.
The Cougars, fresh off a relieving win over Texas Tech in their regular-season finale, have sputtered down the stretch of the season. Losing veteran leader and All-Big 12 Second-Team member Richie Saunders to an ACL tear against Colorado, BYU went on to lose four of their next six games, including battles with UCF (that game was U.G.L.Y.), Cincinnati, West Virginia, and on the road against Arizona (that one is easily forgiven). Shockingly, the two wins that BYU did pick up were against Iowa State and Texas Tech, each a top-10 team at the time of that game.
So you tell me which team should come into this game feeling confident.
Not so fast, though. Let me take a minute to restrain myself before I declare BYU the premptive winner in this one. Though the Cougars claimed a double-digit road victory over the Wildcats earlier in the season, this team has been unreliable in perceivably minor games against the lesser teams in the Big 12 pool. It seems that this team without Saunders is unbalanced. They're uneven. Sure, when things are working well, they have proved capable of competing with anybody (they've given Arizona two scares this year, both with and without Richie).
But Kansas State, with all due respect, poses little threat to a team with BYU's upside. That is exactly why the Cougars should be nervous.
BYU approaches this contest as a lock for the NCAA Tournament -- currently projected to be a 6 seed in latest bracketology projections, if you can believe it -- so the Wildcats have much more to lose if they fail to run the table. Are the chances good that K-State can win the Big 12 title? No. Is BYU an unbeatable monolith? The Cougars' 10 losses would suggest evidence of the contrary.
I won't go picking a Wildcat upset in the Big 12 Tournament. In big games (specifically top-25 conference matchups), K-State is losing by an average of over 20 points. In their most recent contest against a ranked opponent, though BYU is currently slated 26th of 25, K-State fell 85-104 against their in-state rivals, the Jayhawks.
BYU couldn't have asked for a more straightforward opener in the Big 12 Tournament, and though they've been unpredictable, expect Kevin Young's Cougs to advance.