The last BYU player to generate significant NBA Draft buzz before freshmen sensations Egor Demin and Kanon Catchings was Cougar legend Jimmer Fredette. Like Jimmer before them, both Demin and Catchings are struggling with their offensive efficiency in their freshmen seasons.
While the circumstances are different with Fredette playing four seasons at BYU and Demin and Catchings might be one-and-done players, the lessons learned from Jimmer's first year in Provo can provide some context about the futures for BYU’s talented young duo.
Many Freshmen Struggle to Shoot
Most BYU fans remember Jimmer Fredette’s incredible 2010-11 season when he averaged an unreal 28.9 points per game and won the Naismith Award as college basketball’s best player. During that magical season he shot 45.2% from the field and 39.6% from the 3-point line despite being the sole focus of opposing defenses.
Lost in the memories of Jimmer’s dominant senior season is the shooting struggles he had as a freshman.
In Jimmer’s first year in Provo he played in all 35 of the team’s games and averaged 7.0 points in 18.5 minutes per game coming off the bench. That’s a pretty hefty workload for an unheralded freshman and provided him with enough minutes and continuity to carve out a consistent offensive role.
As a freshman Jimmer shot 40.7% from the field and a so-so 33.6% from 3.
Egor Demin is shooting 42.5% from the field and 27.6% from distance.
Kanon Catchings is shooting 41.7% from the floor and a promising 35.8% from the 3-point line.
The reality is most freshmen struggle with offensive efficiency as they learn a new system, join new teammates, and most importantly adjust to the speed, spacing, and physicality of college basketball. As freshmen, Jimmer, Egor, and Kanon are united in shooting in the low 40-percent range.
As BYU fans continue to watch Demin and Catchings miss more shots than they’d like to see, it may be helpful to remember that a young Jimmer Fredette was once doing the same.
The Sophomore Surge
Jimmer Fredette did a lot of on-the-job learning as a freshman, then “made the leap” as a sophomore.
Fredette’s field goal percentage spiked from 40.7% as a freshman to 48.0% in his second year. His 3-point shooting surged from 33.6% to 38.2%. While Jimmer is a completely different player than Demin, a 6-foot-9 point guard, and Catchings, a 6-foot-9 wing, there’s no reason why BYU’s two talented freshmen couldn’t make a similar jump next year if they choose to stay another season in Provo.
Many freshmen play in a style that is often described as “sped up”. They are often rushed or force the action instead of letting the game come to them. When they return for their second seasons, the game seems to “slow down”. They pick their spots. They let the offense come more naturally. They find better spacing. They tend to get a bit stronger and faster and can better handle the physical nature of college hoops.
While it’s likely Egor Demin will enter the NBA Draft after this season, he has also stated that he’s never said he was a guaranteed one-and-done prospect. Katchings, on the other hand, could definitely use another season of college hoops before pursuing his NBA dream.
If both of BYU's talented freshmen return next year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both of their field goal percentages spike from Year 1 to Year 2, just like Jimmer Fredette did before them.